Just A Reminder

By Nic Lenoir Of ICAP

In case politicians don't understand what's at stake, the market kindly gave them a little reminder with a nasty close for equities today. In the early morning it seemed people were quite willing to ignore GS's misfortunes in its dealings with the ever more schizophrenic government. Washington simply cannot understand why it can't destroy speculation and leverage yet keep the equity market up, as it is the only economic driver in the US since easy credit is no longer available. Tough indeed: since nothing or close to nothing is manufactured in the US we need our upper class's investments to skyrocket so it is inclined to spend thereby providing service jobs. US politicians have a lot of work on their plate with the financial reform. Any measures too drastic in terms of balance sheet reduction will be tough on financial assets and curb lending, and any measures to curb speculation on commodities will hit this asset class hard and the commodity stocks along with them (miners are amongst leaders in US equities). European politicians have one fine mess to sort as well and money markets are pricing in higher Libor and funding difficulties ahead already. Without expanding too much on the subject, there is no one I would like less to depend on to make the right decisions.

While stocks were within reach of new highs to start the day in the US, it seems market participants felt like taking risk off before the brainiacs try to figure out what it is exactly they want to do, and by the same token give them a reminder as to the consequences of any stupid decision. S&P is pretty close to posting a H&S on the tops (though the neckline is slightly downward sloping which is not ideal) and the support zone is 1,175/1,180. Watch out below. Similar observation on the Nasdaq future with a neckline support at 1,990. The Nikkei joins in the H&S galore, and the Dax which seems to have been more resolutely bearish (understandable given that the epicenter of the main crapshow the market is focusing on is Europe). After a 61.8% or close retracement of the initial sell-off, if the Dax goes to make new lows next week the markets should in theory accelerate to the downside. For good measure, the French index (CAC) is sitting on a major H&S and 200-dma support as well, dragged by the local banks which have the largest exposure to Greece. The one word no one wants to hear during the weekend is restructuring (synonymous of default) as it would clearly let bondholders know that they are fair game... happy days for those holding PIIGS debt if that happens. Maybe the ECB and German politicians could give Dick Fuld a call to see what he thinks, at this point though hopefully they know th answer.



Commodities curiously did not share the late day panic, and Gold was joined by Copper and Oil for more upside for a change. We have reached the 1,185/1,190 resistance in Gold but at this point there are few reasons other than madness out of the financial reform committy that can prevent a run towards new highs.



Have a great weekend and rest up as next week shall prove more dramatic than the sequal of Titanic!

Nic

Treasury Redeems A Gargantuan $643 Billion In Treasuries In April

A week ago we were practically speechless when we showed that the Treasury had redeemed nearly $494 billion in Bills in April. A truly stunning number and an indication of just how much cash the Treasury needs to have access to to keep rolling its ridiculously short average maturity debt load. Today we stand even more speechless: according to today's DTS, the Treasury has now redeemed $596 billion in Bills in Aprils: an all time world record, even when accounting for the Fed's steroid abuse period of SFP 1 (we are currently in the second iteration). Add $47 billion in Notes and there are almost $650 billion in redemptions. This number is simply ridiculous. Forget the interest expense: this ever increasing roll is the number one danger to the US and world economy. Should the Treasury be unable to keep issuing shorter and shorter dated debt (and it already is skirting away from even the belly of the curve), it is for all intents and purposes game over.

Obama the Centrist

We are live at Project Syndicate: Obama the Centrist:

BERKELEY – Despite the frequent cries of American Republicans that Barack Obama is trying to bring European-style socialism to the United States, it is now very clear that the US president wishes to govern from one place and one place only: the center.

In fighting the recession, Obama decided early on that he would push for a fiscal stimulus program about half the size of what his Democratic economic advisers recommended, and he decided to count that as a total victory rather than press for expanding half a loaf into the full amount.

Obama has been so committed to that cautious policy that even now, with the unemployment rate kissing 10%, he will not grab for the low-hanging fruit and call for an additional $200 billion of federal aid to the states over the next three years in order to prevent further layoffs of teachers. Rather than stemming further erosion of the national commitment to educate the next generation, Obama has shifted his focus to the long-term goal of balancing the budget – even while the macroeconomic storm is still raging.

And, in order to move forward on long-term budget balance, Obama has appointed a fiscal arsonist, Republican ex-Senator Alan Simpson, as one of his fire chiefs – one of the two co-chairs of his deficit reduction commission. Simpson never met an unfunded tax cut proposed by a Republican president that he would vote against, and he never met a balanced deficit-reduction program proposed by a Democratic president that he would support. Partisans whose commitment to deficit reduction vanishes whenever political expedience dictates simply do not belong running bipartisan deficit-reduction commissions.

Likewise, in dealing with the financial sector’s distress, Obama has acquiesced in the Bush-era policy of bailouts for banks without demanding anything of them in return – no nationalizations and no imposition of the second half of Walter Bagehot’s rule that aid be given to banks in a crisis only on the harsh terms of a “penalty rate.” Obama has thus positioned himself to the right not only of Joseph Stiglitz, Simon Johnson, and Paul Krugman, but also of his advisers Paul Volcker and Larry Summers.

On environmental policy, Obama has pressed not for a carbon tax, but for a cap-and-trade system that, for the first generation, pays the polluter. If you were a major emitter in the past, then for the next generation you are given a property right to very valuable emissions permits whose worth will only rise over time.

On anti-discrimination efforts, the repeal of the US military’s “don’t ask, don't tell” policy toward gay soldiers is on an extremely slow track – if, that is, it is hooked up to an engine at all.

On policy towards the rule of law, the closure of the mistake that is Guantánamo Bay is on a similarly slow track. Moreover, Obama has joined George W. Bush in claiming executive powers that rival those claimed by Charles II of Britain in the seventeenth century.

On healthcare reform, Obama’s proudest moment, his achievement is...drum roll...a scheme that almost precisely mimics the reform that Mitt Romney, a Republican who sought the presidency in 2008, brought to the state of Massachusetts. The reform’s centerpiece is a requirement imposed by the government that people choose responsibly and provide themselves with insurance – albeit with the government willing to subsidize the poor and strengthen the bargaining power of the weak.

In all of these cases, Obama is ruling, or trying to rule, by taking positions that are at the technocratic good-government center, and then taking two steps to the right – sacrificing some important policy goals – in the hope of attracting Republican votes and thereby demonstrating his commitment to bipartisanship. On all of these policies – anti-recession, banking, fiscal, environmental, anti-discrimination, rule of law, healthcare – you could close your eyes and convince yourself that, at least as far as the substance is concerned, Obama is in fact a moderate Republican named George H.W. Bush, Mitt Romney, John McCain, or Colin Powell.

Now, don’t get me wrong. My complaints about Obama are not that he is too bipartisan or too centrist. I am at bottom a weak-tea Dewey-Eisenhower-Rockefeller social democrat – that is, with a small “s” and a small “d.” My complaints are that he is not technocratic enough, that he is pursuing the chimera of “bipartisanship” too far, and that, as a result, many of his policies will not work well, or at all.

I understand that politics is the art of the possible, and that good-government technocracy is limited to the attainable. But it would be good if Obama remembered that we dwell not in the Republic of Plato, but in the Roman sewer of Romulus.

Argentinien vor Schuldenschnitt?

Gefunden bei n-tv.de:

Freitag, 30. April 2010

Gläubiger sollen auf Hälfte verzichten – Argentinien vor Schuldenschnitt

Während in Europa um die finanzielle Zukunft Griechenlands gerungen wird, will Argentinien sich mit seinen Gläubigern auf einen hart umrungenen Schuldenschnitt einigen. Acht Jahre nach der Staatspleite sollen Investoren auf rund die Hälfte ihrer Ansprüche verzichten, um dem Land den Weg zurück an den Kapitalmarkt zu ermöglichen.

Argentinien bringt seine geplante Umschuldung voran und will das Angebot ab der kommenden Woche seinen Gläubigern unterbreiten. Wirtschaftsminister Amado Boudou will den Plan zunächst am Montag in Rom vorstellen, am Dienstag und Mittwoch in London und in der darauffolgenden Woche in New York.

Die Investoren der nicht bedienten Anleihen im Umfang von 20 Mrd. US-Dollar haben bis zum 7. Juni Zeit, den Abschlägen zuzustimmen. Analysten zufolge bietet das lateinamerikanische Land für jeden investierten Dollar etwa 52 Cent an.

Teurerster Staatsbankrott

Argentinien war im Jahr 2002 mit einem Schuldenberg von 100 Mrd. US-Dollar zahlungsunfähig geworden, der bislang teurerste Staatsbankrott in der Geschichte. In diesem Jahr muss das Land rund 15 Mrd. US-Dollar neu finanzieren. Zudem hat die Regierung wegen Wahlen im kommenden Jahr Ausgabensteigerungen von 30 Prozent eingeplant. Sie will sich bald mit den Gläubigern einigen, um nach achtjähriger Pause an den Kapitalmarkt zurückkehren zu können.

Die argentinische Pleite weist erstaunliche Parallelen zur aktuellen Krise in Griechenland auf. In beiden Fällen handelt es sich um hoffnungslos überschuldete Länder, die ihre währungspolitische Souveränität aufgegeben haben. Anders als Argentinien dürfte Griechenland als Teil einer Währungsunion jedoch am Kollaps vorbeischrammen.

Die Zahlungsunfähigkeit in Argentinien löste damals schwere Unruhen aus. Supermärkte wurden geplündert, mehrere Demonstranten getötet. In den Wochen um den Jahreswechsel 2001/2002 lösten sich insgesamt fünf Präsidenten ab. Argentinien gab die Dollar-Bindung schließlich auf und wertete die Landeswährung Peso um 65 Prozent ab.

nne/rts/AFP


Home Prices are Difficult

If you were curious how the Census ACS Median Value for Owner-Occupied Housing Units measure compares to an HPI measure like the Case-Shiller index, the chart below is for you.

Census ACS Median Home Prices vs. Case-Shiller

Census home prices compared to Case-Shiller home price index

The answer is: not well. ACS home prices are derived from surveys (pdf) that ask how much a homeowner thinks their house would sell for. Clearly this is not as sophisticated as the repeat sales methodology of Case-Shiller and the FHFA which yield a price index not an actual price. Real prices are nicer to work with than indices, but not at the expense of accuracy. I wanted to compare the two to see if there was any way I could have confidence in the ACS number. I don't think there is, at least not at the national level.

Inside Apple Computer’s Walled Garden

Charlie Stross:

The real reason why Steve Jobs hates Flash: My take on the iPhone OS, and the iPad, isn't just that they're the start of a whole new range of Apple computers that have a user interface.... Rather, they're a hugely ambitious attempt to keep Apple relevant to the future of computing, once Moore's law tapers off and the personal computer industry craters and turns into a profitability wasteland. The App Store and the iTunes Store have taught Steve Jobs that ownership of the sales channel is vital... as long as he can charge rent for access to data (or apps) he's got a business model.... A well-cultivated app store i... a customer draw... a powerful tool for promoting the operating system... an ecosystem. Apple are trying desperately to force the growth of a new ecosystem... in five years flat... the time scale in which they expect the cloud computing revolution to flatten the existing PC industry... [into] interchangable suppliers of commodity equipment assembled on a shoestring budget with negligable profit.

Signs of the Macpocalypse abound. This year, for the first time, the Apple Design Awards at WWDC'10 are only open to iPhone and iPad apps. Mac apps need not apply; they don't contribute to Apple's new walled garden ecosystem. Any threat to the growth of the app store software platform is going to be resisted.... Steve Jobs.... "It is not Adobe's goal to help developers write the best iPhone, iPod and iPad apps. It is their goal to help developers write cross platform apps." And he really does not want cross-platform apps that might divert attention and energy away from his application ecosystem....

Let's peer five years into the future... LTE will be here. WiMax will be here. We will be seeing pocket 4G routers similar to the MiFi but featuring 50-100mbps internet connectivity.... The availability of 50+mbps data everywhere means that you don't need to keep your data on a local hard drive; it can live on a server.... The iPad by 2015 will have evolved. There will be smaller models with 7"/18cm screens, and larger desktop models... newer processors.... But where it will really shine — the value proposition that will keep punters forking over huge gobbets of steaming money, in the midst of a PC industry that's cratering — will be the external benefits of joining the Apple ecosystem. If you're using an iPad in 2015, my bet is that... you'll just have data on demand... backups... stored in Apple's cloud... software updates... will simply happen automatically in the background... nor will worms or viruses or malware be allowed. You will, of course, pay a lot more for the experience than your netbook-toting hardcore microsofties.... You'll... be surrounded by a swarm of devices that give you access to your data whenever and however you need it.

This is why there's a stench of panic hanging over silicon valley. this is why Apple have turned into paranoid security Nazis, why HP have just ditched Microsoft from a forthcoming major platform and splurged a billion-plus on buying up a near-failure; it's why everyone is terrified of Google: The PC revolution is almost coming to an end, and everyone's trying to work out a strategy for surviving the aftermath.

Cade Metz:

HP eyes webOS iPad rival: Borgs Palm for tablets too: In purchasing Palm, HP intends to build and sell not only a new collection of phones based on Palm's critically-acclaimed webOS, but a line of webOS tablets as well. On Wednesday, the two companies announced that HP has agreed to acquire Palm for roughly $1.2bn - $5.70 per share of Palm common stock - and according to Todd Bradley, executive vice president in HP's personal systems group, the PC giant will use Palm's engineers, webOS mobile operating system, and other intellectual property to fashion all sorts of mobile devices for use at work and at play...

Joel Johnson:

Microsoft Cancels Innovative Courier Tablet Project: According to sources familiar with the matter, Microsoft has cancelled Courier, the folding, two-screen prototype tablet that was first uncovered by Gizmodo.... It appeared from the leaked information last year that a Courier prototype was probably near to completion. The combination of both touch- and pen-based computing was compelling. Perhaps the strong launch of Apple's iPad, currently the only available "mobile tablet" from a major vendor, caused Ballmer to reassess the commitment of Microsoft in a soon-to-be-crowded market.... It is a pity. Courier was one of the most innovative concepts out of Redmond in quite some time. But what we loved about Courier was the interface and the thinking behind it.... Hopefully some of the smart thinking we have seen in Courier will find its way into Microsoft's tablets, whether they're powered by Windows 7 or Windows Phone 7...

Jay Yarow:

Apple Doesn't Have To Worry About The HP Slate Anymore: Apple's iPad team doesn't have to worry about the HP Slate tablet.... An analyst asked what HP would be doing with its iPad-rival. HP's Todd Bradley responded, "We haven't made roadmap announcements," but that HP will explain its Slate plans in more detail when the Palm deal closes.... [I]f HP was still all-in with its Windows-based Slate, we think Todd may have said, "we still plan on partnering with Microsoft on the Slate."


From the Arcbives: Justin Scheck and Nick Wingfield last February:

PC Makers Ready iPad Rivals: Computer makers are developing strategies and devices to challenge Apple Inc.'s iPad.... In the next few weeks, executives from Hewlett-Packard Co. will meet in the U.S. and Taiwan to tweak prices and features on an upcoming keyboardless computer dubbed the Slate.... H-P has discussed selling a version of the Slate—similar to the iPad in size and features, and including a cellular connection—for a price below the $629 Apple charges for an equivalent iPad, one of these people said. Executives at Dell Inc., Acer Inc. and Sony Corp. say they are all watching Apple as they refine their own products. And Microsoft Corp. has a secretive team working on a two-screen tablet device....

"For us, the iPad launch is a benchmark," said Mike Abary, a vice president in Sony's Vaio PC division....

Sumit Agnihotry, a vice president of marketing at Acer, said the company... is developing products midway in size between a smart phone and a laptop, including an e-reader that will come out later this year....

Microsoft has a group of designers who operate out of a little-known company incubation laboratory in Seattle called Alchemy Ventures... working on a two-screen tablet, code-named Courier... it's unclear whether the company will introduce the gadget, these people added. A Microsoft spokesman declined comment....

H-P announced its Slate a few weeks before the iPad... decided to wait for the iPad's unveiling before selling the Slate so it could see Apple's device "and tweak things," such as pricing....

John Thode, a Dell vice president in charge of portable devices, said the company predicted Apple wouldn't do a small-screen tablet since Apple already offered the 3.5-inch screen iPod Touch. So after doing consumer research in 2008 that showed customers would buy Web-surfing gadgets with a five-inch screen, Mr. Thode said, Dell began developing a tablet dubbed the Mini 5. The device, which Dell unveiled in January, will likely go on the market this year using Google Inc.'s Android software.

So any sign of the Mini 5?

Deutschland: Hypo Real Estate braucht weitere Hilfen…

Knapp 2 Mrd. EUR sind es diesmal – und 10 Mrd. EUR können es noch werden…

Gefunden bei n-tv.de:

Freitag, 30. April 2010

Kapitalbedarf ungebrochenHRE frisst weiteres Geld

Der Hunger nach frischem Kapital ist bei der Hypo Real Estate (HRE) noch nicht gestillt. Nun bekommt das schwer angeschlagene Geldinstitut weitere fast zwei Milliarden Euro vom Soffin. Die HRE rechnet auch weiterhin mit einem Kapitalbedarf von insgesamt zehn Milliarden Euro.

Die krisengeschüttelte Immobilienbank Hypo Real Estate (HRE) erhält vom Sonderfonds Finanzmarktstabilisierung (Soffin) weitere 1,85 Milliarden Euro. Wie die mittlerweile verstaatlichte Bank in München mitteilte, soll das frische Kapital in mindestens zwei Tranchen in die Kapitalrücklage der HRE eingezahlt werden.

Damit wären bislang 7,85 Milliarden Euro des von der HRE angemeldeten Kapitalbedarfs in Höhe von insgesamt zehn Milliarden Euro geflossen. Die HRE rechne auch weiterhin mit einem Kapitalbedarf von insgesamt zehn Milliarden Euro für den Konzernverbund, teilte die Bank mit. Die Maßnahme bedarf noch der Zustimmung der EU-Kommission.

Der Soffin will über die abschließende Rekapitalisierung der Bank nach Abschluss des laufenden EU-Beihilfeverfahrens und der Einrichtung der beantragten Abwicklungsanstalt, einer sogenannten “Bad Bank” entscheiden. In diese “Anstalt in der Anstalt” (Aida) will die HRE risikobehaftete Vermögenswerte von bis zu 210 Milliarden Euro auslagern.

Die HRE war nach der knapp verhinderten Pleite und Hilfen von mehr als 100 Milliarden Euro im Herbst vergangenen Jahres vollständig verstaatlicht worden. Der Konzern steckt noch immer tief in den roten Zahlen und sieht frühestens für 2012 eine Rückkehr in die Gewinnzone. Unter dem Strich häufte die HRE bis zum Jahresende 2009 ein Minus von rund 2,2 Milliarden Euro an.

dpa


Net Euro Shorts Spike, Regain Record Highs, As Dollar Longs Surge To Highest Since August 2008

This week's risk aversion trade is nowhere more evident than in the spike of Net eureo shorts for the week ended April 27, as reported by the CFTC. After having retreated to as low as 66k two weeks ago, the net speculative position in the european currency has surged, hitting record resistance in the 97k range. (see chart below). And even as Europe fears drove speculators to abandon the euro, the one currency which is sitting in no man's land, the USD, this week saw net longs rise to the highest value since August of 2008. Feel free to oull up a chart fo the EURUDF pair and see when the last time it was preparing to blow out so wide was,

Griechenland: “Man wird Zeit kaufen”“

… bis dann das nächste Land “kriselt”. :-( Gefunden bei wiwo.de:

Gbureks Geld-Geklimper

Griechenland-Krise: Was Anleger jetzt tun sollten

Manfred Gburek 30.04.2010

Sind außer griechischen auch andere Staatsanleihen gefährdet? Haben Aktien weiteres Kurspotenzial? Ist Gold immer noch interessant? Solche und andere Fragen haben Anlageprofis in dieser Woche diskutiert – mit zum Teil überraschenden Ergebnissen.

Bert Flossbach erzählt gern von seiner jüngsten Reise nach Athen, wie er vor der Akropolis saß und über die unglaublichen Zahlen nachdachte, die seine Gesprächspartner vor Ort ihm genannt hatten. Als Vorstand und Anlagestratege der Kölner Vermögensverwaltung Flossbach & von Storch war es zu Beginn dieser Woche schließlich eine seiner wichtigsten Aufgaben, für Anleger aktuell die entscheidenden Schlussfolgerungen aus dem Finanzdesaster Griechenlands zu ziehen. Flossbach fasst zusammen: “Die Zahlen, die ich gehört habe, waren erschreckend. Die Restrukturierung der griechischen Schulden ist unvermeidlich. Griechenland ist nur die Spitze des Eisbergs. Das Hauptthema der nächsten Dekade heißt Staatsschulden. Die Steuern gehen hoch.” Leider nicht nur die griechischen, sondern auch die deutschen, so die Quintessenz.

Als hätte Bundesfinanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble dem Vermögensverwalter zugehört, sah er sich wenige Stunden später im Rahmen eines ARD-Interviews gezwungen, die Bundesbürger beim Thema Steuern zu beruhigen: Er hoffe, dass die deutsche Hilfe für Griechenland “nichts kostet”, es gehe ja “nicht um Steuergelder”, sondern um einen Kredit. Das war als Ablenkungsmanöver vor der Landtagswahl in Nordrhein-Westfalen am 9. Mai durchaus clever formuliert. Aber was sollte es bedeuten? Jens Ehrhardt, Chef der nach ihm benannten Vermögensverwaltung in Pullach, zerbricht sich zu diesem Fragenkomplex schon seit Monaten den Kopf, weil er wie Flossbach für seine Anleger die richtigen Schlüsse ziehen muss. “Man wird einen Konkurs Griechenlands nicht zulassen”, argumentiert er, “man wird Zeit kaufen”. Man, das ist die EU, das ist speziell die Eurozone und noch spezieller Deutschland.

Inflation: Die Experten sind uneinig

Den Pullacher Vermögensverwalter verbindet in diesem Punkt eine gewisse geistige Verwandtschaft mit Klaus Kaldemorgen, Sprecher der Geschäftsführung der Investmentgesellschaft DWS in Frankfurt. Auch er ist sicher, man werde sich “erst einmal Zeit kaufen”. Dann wird er konkreter: “In der nächsten Woche wird das Problem gelöst sein.” Die Folge auf lange Sicht: “Auch Deutschland wird sein Schuldenproblem nie lösen können.” Kaldemorgen resümiert: Zur Lösung des Problems böten sich zwar Steuererhöhungen an, aber sie seien “kein gangbarer Weg”. Darüber hinaus könnten die Schulden durch mehr Wirtschaftswachstum kompensiert werden. Und schließlich gebe es ja noch den Ausweg aus der Schuldenfalle durch mehr Inflation, den Kaldemorgen als “Königsweg” bezeichnet. Sein Fazit mit Blick auf die Geldanlage: Weder mehr Wirtschaftswachstum noch mehr Inflation ist für Anleihen gut. Damit zielt er besonders auf Staatsanleihen ab und ergänzt: “Inzwischen sind Unternehmen die besseren Schuldner.”

Beim Thema Inflation sind die Experten sich nicht einig. Während Kaldemorgen argumentiert, die Notenbanken könnten den Politikern nicht ohne Weiteres in den Rücken fallen, wenn diese sich zu wenig um die Inflationsgefahren kümmerten, meint Ehrhardt: “In diesem Punkt tue ich mich schwer.” Und Rolf Banz, Anlagestratege der Privatbank Pictet in Genf, findet etwas Inflation, außer dass sie den Staaten die Schuldentilgung erleichtert, aus einem ganz spezifischen Grund gar nicht so schlecht: “Sie hat den Vorteil, dass Vermögen von der alten auf die junge Generation transferiert wird.” Natürlich vorausgesetzt, beide verhalten sich entsprechend und investieren nicht ihr ganzes Geld in Staatsanleihen.

Ultima Ratio Gold

Eine besonders große Abneigung haben die Anlageprofis gegen japanische Staatsanleihen. “Japan muss sie demnächst zur Hälfte des Bruttoinlandsprodukts refinanzieren”, warnt Ehrhardt. Japan kann sich zwar noch den Luxus erlauben, den größten Teil der Schulden aus dem Land selbst zu finanzieren, aber diese Zeit dürfte allmählich zu Ende gehen. Erschwerend hinzu kommt, dass der Yen überbewertet ist, Yen-Anlagen so gut wie keine Zinsen bringen und bisher jegliche Impulse zur Belebung der japanischen Konjunktur verpufft sind.

Wenn der nun schon fast drei Jahrzehnte währende Höhenflug der Anleihen sein Ende findet und die Staatsschulden immer weiter wachsen, wo sind dann die Alternativen? Etwa bei inflationsgeschützten Anleihen? “Noch nicht lohnenswert”, sagt Heiko Beck, Produktmanager bei der Commerzbank in Frankfurt. Aktien? “Die Achterbahn geht weiter”, meint er. Flossbach konkretisiert: Er bevorzugt weiter Aktien – und fügt hinzu: “außer Finanzwerten”. Anleihen sind für ihn nicht ganz tabu, Hauptsache, sie haben kurze Laufzeiten. Anlagefavorit ist für Flossbach allerdings etwas anderes: Gold.

Weltleitwährungen auf der Intensivstation

Ist der Goldpreis nicht schon zu hoch? Ehrhardt hat dazu eine dezidierte Meinung: “Trends setzen sich häufig lange fort”, spielt er auf den nun schon rund ein Jahrzehnt anhaltenden Preisanstieg des Edelmetalls an, und als Anlage sei es immer noch wenig vertreten. Stefan Keitel, Anlagestratege bei Credit Suisse in Zürich, hebt noch einen Aspekt hervor, der in der bisherigen Ursachenforschung zum Goldpreisanstieg offensichtlich zu kurz gekommen ist: “Vorsicht bei den Weltleitwährungen, sie sind auf der Intensivstation.” Wenn man sich frage, warum der Goldpreis so nachhaltig gestiegen sei, sollte man diesen Aspekt ganz besonders berücksichtigen und nicht so sehr die Inflation, die in der fraglichen Zeit kaum zugelegt habe.

Fazit: Der Problemfall Griechenland lenkt davon ab, dass die Staatsschulden weltweit eine Höhe erreicht haben, von der sie nicht mehr herunterkommen können. Am schlimmsten ist Japan betroffen. Deutschland wird Griechenland helfen, aber das eigentliche Problem nur zeitlich verschieben. Staatsanleihen sind mit Vorsicht zu genießen, Unternehmensanleihen im Zweifel solider. Aktien bleiben selektiv interessant, wenn auch unter Schwankungen. Und Gold wird seinen langfristigen Aufwärtstrend fortsetzen, weil es als Anlageinstrument erst wenig entdeckt ist und weil die Leitwährungen sich auf der Intensivstation befinden.


Bank Failures #58 to 60: Puerto Rico

Banco Colapso
Los prestamos dudosos
Peo gestion

by Soylent Green is People

From the FDIC: Oriental Bank and Trust, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Assumes All of the Deposits of Eurobank, San Juan, Puerto Rico
Eurobank, San Juan, Puerto Rico, was closed today by the Office of the Commissioner of Financial Institutions of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of December 31, 2009, Eurobank had approximately $2.56 billion in total assets and $1.97 billion in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $743.9 million. ... Eurobank is the 58th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year. Eurobank is one of three institutions closed in Puerto Rico today.
From the FDIC: Scotiabank de Puerto Rico, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Assumes All of the Deposits of R-G Premier Bank of Puerto Rico, Hato Rey, Puerto Rico
R-G Premier Bank of Puerto Rico, Hato Rey, Puerto Rico, was closed today by the Office of the Commissioner of Financial Institutions of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of December 31, 2009, R-G Premier Bank of Puerto Rico had approximately $5.92 billion in total assets and $4.25 billion in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $1.23 billion.... R-G Premier Bank of Puerto Rico is the 59th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year. R-G Premier Bank of Puerto Rico is one of three institutions closed in Puerto Rico today.
From the FDIC: Banco Popular de Puerto Rico, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Assumes All of the Deposits of Westernbank Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico
Westernbank Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, was closed today by the Office of the Commissioner of Financial Institutions of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of December 31, 2009, Westernbank Puerto Rico had approximately $11.94 billion in total assets and $8.62 billion in total deposits...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $3.31 billion. ... Westernbank Puerto Rico is the 60th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year. Western Bank was one of three institutions closed in Puerto Rico today.
There goes a quick $5+ billion from the DIF ...
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