Trump, Policy, Markets

Trump, Policy, Markets David R. Kotok Cumberland, January 17, 2017       As Don Rissmiller of Strategas Research Partners succinctly points out: “There are four types of government policy that can be used to steer the economy: 1) monetary policy, 2) fiscal policy, 3) regulatory policy, and 4) trade policy.” We will use Don’s…

Read More

The post Trump, Policy, Markets appeared first on The Big Picture.

Trumpophobia to Trumpophoria

Trumpophobia to Trumpophoria & Central Bank Lessons David R Kotok Cumberland, December 12, 2016     Zimbabwe competes with Venezuela for first place in the contest of the most poorly governed regimes that have hyperinflation policies. Here is the latest chapter in dictator Robert Mugabe’s attempt to destroy what remains of any capital in that…

Read More

The post Trumpophobia to Trumpophoria appeared first on The Big Picture.

Politics and Market Volatility

Politics and Market Volatility David R Kotok Cumberland, November 28, 2016     The story about the proportion of protestors who didn’t vote originated on November 14 with Station KGW, the NBC TV affiliate in Portland, which reported detailed statistics on the 112 arrested protestors and their voting history. Here is the link. A few…

Read More

The post Politics and Market Volatility appeared first on The Big Picture.

Trump, Lincoln, Churchill, Hegel, Gundlach

Trump, Lincoln, Churchill, Hegel, Gundlach David R Kotok Cumberland, November 22, 2016       Speculation and diverse economic and market forecasts abound on the heels of the Trump win and Republican Senate and House victories. We won’t waste time repeating them here, save for one that we will address at the end of this…

Read More

The post Trump, Lincoln, Churchill, Hegel, Gundlach appeared first on The Big Picture.

Peacetime-Wartime; Inflation-Deflation; the Trump Era Begins

Peacetime-Wartime; Inflation-Deflation; the Trump Era Begins David R Kotok Cumberland, November 14, 2016       Shilling is a well-known name in the circles of economics and financial markets. I’ve had the pleasure of fishing with him and tasting his superb honey – he is a beekeeping hobbyist. Gary and his team are deeply thoughtful…

Read More

The post Peacetime-Wartime; Inflation-Deflation; the Trump Era Begins appeared first on The Big Picture.

Interest Rates and William Safire

The money market fund rules change came and went (Rule 2a7 effective on October 14). We now have government funds yielding short-maturity T-bill rates and prime funds yielding more from their holdings of commercial paper and CDs. The government fund doesn’t break the buck. The prime fund may break the buck. “You pays yer money…

Read More

The post Interest Rates and William Safire appeared first on The Big Picture.

America’s Political Angst

America’s Political Angst David R Kotok October 9, 2016.     We publish a few hours before the Sunday night, October 9, 2016 second presidential debate. This bizarre election cycle unfolds with a constant flow of surreal surprises. We might have thought that House of Cards screenwriters wrote the screenplay. Here is our attempt to comment from…

Read More

The post America’s Political Angst appeared first on The Big Picture.

Zika, Cuba, American Politics

Zika, Cuba, American Politics David R Kotok Cumberland October 4, 2016       “Why is Zika so important that you write about it often?” I have gotten that question many times. An update on the Zika situation follows. But first let me offer an explanation as to why I write about it. I believe…

Read More

The post Zika, Cuba, American Politics appeared first on The Big Picture.

Puerto Rico Insured: Third Quarter 2016 Review 

Puerto Rico Insured: Third Quarter 2016 Review Shaun Burgess, Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst September 24, 2016     Puerto Rico started off the third quarter with a bang: a historic default and a seminal moment in the drama that has played out over the past two years plus on the little island in the…

Read More

The post Puerto Rico Insured: Third Quarter 2016 Review  appeared first on The Big Picture.

Jackson Hole – What Have We Learned?

Jackson Hole – What Have We Learned? Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. Cumberland, August 29, 2016       Chair Yellen’s much-awaited Jackson Hole speech has been touted in the media as suggesting that there will soon be a second rate hike to follow the FOMC’s December 2015 move. However, many have noted that there was actually…

Read More

The post Jackson Hole – What Have We Learned? appeared first on The Big Picture.

1 2 3 31