Key Earnings Reports Next Week

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Using our Interactive Earnings Report Database, we’re able to tell Premium subscribers which companies typically beat or miss estimates the most, and which companies typically gain or lose the most in response to their earnings reports.  Below is a list of the 25 largest companies reporting earnings next week, with some of our key earnings statistics included (shaded color-coded columns).  This data covers all quarterly earnings reports for each company going back to 2001.

Sixty percent of next week’s key reports come from the Financial sector.  15 of the 25 largest stocks set to report are Financials.  Given how well the sector has performed since the election, we think the expectations bar is going to be set high.  Any misses or negative guidance will see stock prices fall more than they normally would.

On Tuesday (Monday is a holiday), we hear from Morgan Stanley (MS) and UnitedHealth (UNH), then we hear from Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS) on Wednesday morning.  Netflix (NFLX) is going to be watched closely when it reports Wednesday after the close.  On Thursday, American Express (AXP) and IBM are the biggest reports (both after the close), and then General Electric (GE) rounds out the week on Friday morning.

Of the stocks shown, UNH, GS, NFLX, UNP, and SYF have historically beaten earnings estimates the most often.  Goldman has also beaten revenue estimates the most often out of all stocks listed.  Historically, stocks like MS, CSX, USB, KEY, and SYF have reacted the most positively on their earnings reaction days, while Netflix (NFLX) is by far the most volatile stock on earnings out of the names listed.  You can view a full list of the most volatile stocks on earnings in this post we did last week.




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Health Care Costs Down, Elective Procedures Up

Each month, Bespoke runs a survey of 1,500 US consumers balanced to census.  In the survey, we cover everything you can think of regarding the economy, personal finances, and consumer spending habits.  We’ve now been running the monthly survey for more than two years, so we have historical trend data that is extremely valuable, and it only gets more valuable as time passes.  All of this data gets packaged into our monthly Bespoke Consumer Pulse Report, which is included as part of our Pulse subscription package that is available for either $39/month or $365/year.  We highly recommend trying out the service, as it includes access to model portfolios and additional consumer reports as well.  If you’re not yet a Pulse member, click here to start a 30-day free trial now!

Earlier this week we noted that our December Pulse survey showed big increases in expectations to purchase big ticket items like homes and autos.  We saw similarly positive results in our series of questions regarding the Health Care sector.  Over the last 6-9 months, consumers in our survey had been reporting higher health care costs, but as shown in the chart below, they noted declining costs in this month’s survey.  This question asks consumers to compare current costs versus a year ago on a range of things like copays, deductibles, and premiums.  Regardless of whether or not it was actually the case, the dip in reported costs versus our November survey is what consumers felt at least.


Consumers seemingly feel healthier as well, as hospital visits over the past month dipped while the “1-3 month” category rose.  You can see the dip in the chart below:

When consumers feel more flush, they’re more willing to spend on discretionary items and services.  One of the questions we ask consumers in our monthly survey is if they’ve had cosmetic or plastic surgery recently, as well as orthopedic surgery and Lasik surgery.  These are all elective procedures (although orthopedic and Lasik is much less elective than plastic surgery) that consumers cut back on when times are tight.  If the economy is going into a downturn, we should see these categories start to dip right away.  As shown in the chart below, while Lasik and orthopedic procedures remained steady, we saw a new high in those reporting cosmetic or plastic surgeries in December.

To see our full December Pulse report, click here to start a 30-day free trial now!

The Closer 1/12/17 – The Slowing Of Global Populations

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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we chart up projected global population growth from the US Census for a range of countries. We also recap import price data released today.


The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can see it and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a no-obligation 14-day free trial to our research!

Most Shorted Stocks Lagging the Market

Short interest figures for the end of December were released after the close yesterday, and as one might expect given the rally in equities, negative bets on individual stocks continued their post-election decline.  The table below lists the 20 stocks in the S&P 1500 that have 30% or more of their free-floating shares sold short, and for each stock we also include how they have fared so far in 2017.  Even though equities have rallied so far this year, the most heavily shorted stocks haven’t taken part in the rally.  The average return of the 20 stocks listed is a decline of 1.47% (median: -1.08%).  In terms of breadth, it’s a more even split with nine stocks up and eleven down, but still skewed negative.

You won’t find a lot of household names on the list.  Many people will recognize companies like LendingTree (TREE), Restoration Hardware (RH), Lumber Liquidators (LL), Tempur Sealy (TPX), and Big Lots (BIG), but most of the others are all obscure small cap companies.  In terms of individual returns, though, there haven’t been too many outliers.  The biggest downside losers have been Eagle Pharma (EGRX) and World Acceptance (WRLD), while the biggest winner has been Greenbrier (GBX).  As we said at the top, though, normally in a rising market environment you tend to see the most heavily shorted stocks do best.  Therefore, if this trend of underperformance continues, it would be a cause for concern for the broad market.

Interested in a more in-depth analysis of short interest trends?  Earlier today, we published our bi-monthly short interest report, which is available to all Bespoke Premium and Institutional clients.   Click here to start a no-obligation 14-day free trial now.

Most HSorted

Bespoke’s Sector Snapshot — 1/12/17

We’ve just released our weekly Sector Snapshot report (see a sample here) for Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members.  Please log-in here to view the report if you’re already a member.  If you’re not yet a subscriber and would like to see the report, please start a 14-day trial to Bespoke Premium now.

Below is one of the many charts included in this week’s Sector Snapshot, which simply highlights the year-to-date returns so far for the major S&P 500 sectors.  As shown, even though the broad S&P 500 is up 1.33% on the year, there are four sectors currently in the red: Telecom, Energy, Consumer Staples, and Utilities.

To see our full Sector Snapshot with additional commentary plus six pages of charts that include analysis of valuations, breadth, technicals, and relative strength, start a 14-day free trial to our Bespoke Premium package now.  Here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive.


ETF Trends: Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities – 1/12/17

Metals prices have surged with the broad European Stoxx 600 seeing its Basic Resources (miners) sector rise more than 1% each of the last four days; that’s with DBB up 5% and strong performances for iron ore and copper. Steel Producers, South Africa, and Brazil have benefited. A weaker dollar has helped support gold, as well as broad swathes of EM. Over the last week, however, Mexico remains one of the worst performing ETFs while oil producers are down significantly over five sessions despite an oil rally in the last two. Pharma has also underperformed.

Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes.  If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect.  Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.

See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.

64 Trading Days Without a 1%+ Decline

Get Bespoke’s 2017 Outlook Report with a 30-day free trial to Bespoke’s premium research!  Click here to learn more.

The S&P 500 is currently down 0.80% as we approach mid-day.  Could this be the day that we finally see a 1%+ decline?  The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% was back on October 11th when the index dropped 1.24%.  The current 64-trading day streak without a 1%+ decline is the second longest of the current bull market which began in March 2009.  The longest such streak of the bull market lasted 66 trading days from April through July of 2014.  Going all the way back to 1928 when the S&P 500 began, there have only been 29 longer streaks without a 1%+ decline than the current one.  When we finally do get another 1%+ decline (maybe today), we’ll be sure to provide clients with a look at how the market has historically performed in the days and weeks following the day that the streak is broken.




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