Zerohedge.com had a very interesting article earlier today summarizing a new research piece by Deutsche Bank about the current level of margin debt and the stories on said margin debt. In particular, the report looks at articles in 1999 and 2007 for correlation with today’s headlines. As DB says, “we prepared a collection of press […]
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Short note on slowest day of the year… Back in 2007, flipping houses was all the rage. The idea was to buy a house, or better yet a preconstuction property, and “flip” it for a quick capital gain, with maximum leverage. Simple. Well, who’s buying treasuries now? Flippers. Why do I call them flippers? With 10 […]
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Everywhere I turn, it’s Case-Shiller Housing prices increased here, increased there, what will higher mortgage rates mean for the next data point, etc. The Case-Shiller index is good for a long term series, but the data being released is for months ago. Today’s most important story has nothing to do with housing and everything to […]
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I will admit that I have never run a bank, although I’ve loaned out money to family and friends to varying degrees of repayment success. It’s thus from an armchair perspective that I’ll boil down the banking business into a simple model: borrow short and lend long. Borrowing short comes from deposits, and lending long […]
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Everyone is talking about The Taper! Have you heard? Good news might mean that the Fed will taper. Should we then hope for bad news so the taper won’t happen? Is the Fed (and Obama & Co.), then, in a position to root for higher unemployment so their hand isn’t forced yet? This reminds me of […]
The post To Taper or Not to Taper, That is the Question appeared first on The Hard Trade.
The summer doldrums are here, regardless of last week’s volatility. For starters, no one wants to look at the markets when everyone else is out barbecuing. More importantly, there are so many diverging signals that no one wants to take large positions (e.g. do you go long Apple here or not? Will the Fed step […]
The post A growing divergence between oil and stocks appeared first on The Hard Trade.
The markets are up. The markets are down. In the space of a few weeks, we’ve seen giants fall (is it true that Bridgewater is down 8% for the month? or, if Apple and gold are down, is Einhorn getting a margin call?). Even bond guru Jeff Gundlach is being forced to host special, off-schedule […]
The post Gold miners – Catching a falling knife or getting in before the turn? appeared first on The Hard Trade.
The S&P was off 41 points today and closed below the psychologically important 1,600. It was a painful day, with no place to hide. Stocks were down, but so were bonds, commodities, international markets, gold, etc. Not much green to be found. On the flip side, let’s keep some perspective. Here’s a chart of today’s […]
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I have been a China bear for longer than an ETF existed to play the Chinese rise. Visions of Russian propaganda farms kept creeping in to my interpretation of Chinese growth figures. When news of ghost towns first emerged, my response was a simple, knowing shrug. But now that the market is off about 25% […]
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