To Find the Cause of the Crisis, Answer These Questions!

Sometimes, when you lose a debate, you have to just let it go. That seems to be a problem for those who are unwilling to accept the complex realities of what actually caused the financial crisis. I have been saying for a long time that many elements contributed to the global financial meltdown. From ultralow…

Read More

The post To Find the Cause of the Crisis, Answer These Questions! appeared first on The Big Picture.

Forecasting’s Problem is Philosophy, Not Track Record

This time of year is peak forecasting season — holiday retail sales, lists of stocks you should buy this year and, of course, market forecasts all keep economists, strategists and analysts busy. I always make time to mock some of the sillier approaches to prediction-making. Indeed, I have been doing this for so long that…

Read More

The post Forecasting’s Problem is Philosophy, Not Track Record appeared first on The Big Picture.

2017 Active Management is Back! (or not)

This is the year that active-investment management makes its return to form. It is the year, or so we are told, when active fights back, scores some points,  and gets its revenge on passive indexers. For the record, active management never went away. The claim that it has returned, after a run of fairly horrific…

Read More

The post 2017 Active Management is Back! (or not) appeared first on The Big Picture.

Amazon the Disruptor

What is Amazon.com Inc., exactly? If you answered “an online book retailer,” then you haven’t been paying attention for like, oh, the past decade or so. What seems like a straight-forward question is actually a much more complex and surprising inquiry than you might have guessed. I began thinking about this earlier this year, when…

Read More

The post Amazon the Disruptor appeared first on The Big Picture.

Insider Gift Tips for your favorite Traders

It might have been almost 60 degrees this past weekend, but don’t let that lull you into a false sense of complacency: You have less than a week of holiday shopping — or, as I like to call it,  Shopmas — to go. If you are anything like me, your gift list is down to those…

Read More

The post Insider Gift Tips for your favorite Traders appeared first on The Big Picture.

Fun with Forecasting!

One of the things I failed to learn after writing a book was the simple fact that methodically demonstrating a thing with data and evidence doesn’t resolve that issue. I shouldn’t have been so naive, given that some people still are flat-earthers, or are anti-vaxxers, or Holocaust deniers, or claim that global warming is a Chinese…

Read More

The post Fun with Forecasting! appeared first on The Big Picture.

Winter Reading: 10 Books to get you thru the cold

New Year’s is fast approaching, along with cold and snowy weather. That’s when I begin to think about the books I want to enjoy sitting next to a warm fire. I managed to get through most of the books on my summer reading list. Now, it is time to tee up a new round of…

Read More

The post Winter Reading: 10 Books to get you thru the cold appeared first on The Big Picture.

Frothy!

The post election rally has taken markets to all time highs. Readers know I am not a fan of making stock market predictions, but the recent changes do raise some interesting questions. Rather than make up a silly forecast – “Markets will come in 7% sometime between now and February 22” – I would prefer…

Read More

The post Frothy! appeared first on The Big Picture.

Putting the Minimum Wage Debate into Context

We interrupt this holiday season to revisit the minimum-wage experiment going on in various cities and states, paying special attention to those opposed to plans by some locales to eventually adopt a $15 hourly wage. The forecasts of these critics — that jobs would be lost and businesses would close — have, so far, been…

Read More

The post Putting the Minimum Wage Debate into Context appeared first on The Big Picture.

Tversky and Kahneman Changed How We Think

Michael Lewis is the poet laureate of the financial world. Each of his deeply researched, beautifully composed books causes a stir when published. Recall the brouhaha that erupted when Lewis, discussing his 2014 book, “Flash Boys” on “60 Minutes,” said that markets are rigged. Lewis’ newest book, “The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our…

Read More

The post Tversky and Kahneman Changed How We Think appeared first on The Big Picture.

1 2 3 6