The Current Message of Yield Curves: Inflation or Deflation?

With the state of post-Op/Twist systemic dysfunction, there are no absolutes, but… Generally, a rising yield curve (after years of Goldilocks and her favored declining curve) would signal changes in financial markets.  But it is not as simple as stating ‘the curve is rising… it’s bearish!’ or ‘the curve is rising… it’s bullish!’.  It is […]


“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?” –Alice in Wonderland Silver out performs gold as both rise with Treasury bonds, […]

A Path Toward Inflation

Yes, it’s another inflation post going up even as inflation expectations are in the dumper and casino patrons just cannot get enough of Treasury and Government bonds yielding 0%, near 0% and below 0%. Feel free to tune out the lunatic inflation theories you’ve found at over the last few weeks. But if by […]

Inflation, Deflation & Associated Trading Prospects

Recently I have gotten wordy about the decline in ‘inflation expectations’ beginning on June 2, right on through yesterday’s update of the TIP-TLT ratio and TLT in essence, attaining their targets.  The implication would be that the mini deflation whiff is coming to its limits. As often happens at potential limit points, the market’s crosscurrents […]

We Have Run Out of Customers (by Bob Kudla)

Let me explain: The concept is beyond supply and demand, at some point the price gets to a point where there is not enough buyers at any price that makes sense to produce or serve, and for the world this has now become a structural problem, and will turn deflation into a depression.  Capital owners […]

Leading and Other Indicators: Time to Hike?

According to the amalgamation of ‘Leading Indicators’ to the economy, it is time for a rate hike. Here is the graph of LI and Fed Funds, from Wisdom Tree’s post on the subject. It is and has been also time to hike based on employment numbers. This was supposed to be the last thing to […]

Peak Oil? Peak Stocks?

By Biiwii Are Stocks the Next Oil (or Uranium, Copper, Silver)? See: Oil collapse couldn’t come at a worse time for industry See: 2007, when everyone was convinced of ‘Peak Oil’ and there were websites named ‘Peak Oil’, ‘Oil Drum’, etc. constantly reinforcing the mania. I remember being away on business one day in 2007, […]

Bulletin: It’s a Credit Bubble!

You may have caught the title’s little inside joke. Sometimes you (well, I anyway) can look at a graph representing data that is a culmination of history (i.e. reality) and just let it settle in for some perspective and even some conclusions. Whether these conclusions are right or wrong is subjective and open to debate. […]
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