Stock Slinging

It seems that most forex and futures symbols continue to run in circles ahead of the Friday presidential inauguration and unfortunately I found little to share on that front. Which leaves us only with stock symbols but fortunately I was able to uncover a few goodies.

2017-01-18_LXP_update

First a quick update on our LXP campaign which I posted for the subs last week. We snagged a pretty decent entry and thus far it’s sticking to the script. Time to advance or stop to near the break/even mark at 10.79.

2017-01-18_APC_setup

APC is a possible long term campaign which is why I’m showing you the weekly and monthly panels. As you can see it’s been trading inside of tight range for the past few weeks and I’m sure it wants out. As it’s near the lower boundary plus given the monthly context I am tempted to grab a long position with a stop below 68.

2017-01-18_APC_financhill

Seasonality courtesy of Financhill – click on the chart or here to look at a dynamic chart plus some juicy stats. I don’t see any red flags here so this is a go for me.

2017-01-18_LOW_setup

LOW has been trading even lower lately but managed to reconquer a daily NLBL plus its 100-day SMA. I’m interested in a long position but only if it drops back down to the 72 mark. Stop would be placed below 70 – how’s that for nice round numbers?

2017-01-18_LOW_financhill

Seasonality very supportive – we’re looking good here.

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Ready For Action

I really had to drag my butt in front of my monitor this morning. Didn’t feel like trading and I for sure didn’t feel like I had it in me to do a post. But as the saying goes: No rest for the wicked. For I was quickly reminded of a sentiment I felt many times after convincing myself to brave lousy weather and hit the gym. For one I was glad that I went and most importantly I probably would have missed a kick ass session.

2017-01-11_silver_update

So let’s dive right in with an update on our silver campaign. Which barely triggered an entry near 16 yesterday, and I’m glad it did as it’s now time to advance our stop to break/even. I concede that it’s a bit early to do that but in this particular case we have a situation where silver is just about to either reach escape velocity or will most likely be stomped on again. Given the ongoing series of higher lows and higher highs it’s really time for this one to get out the gate.

2017-01-11_zl

Soybean Oil – yes, a bit of an exotic contract but I have enjoyed trading it in the past as it’s got a habit of jumping off like a 1964 GTO on nitro. Our evil mission of the day is to wait for a long entry near 35.4 and then put a stop somewhere below the 35 mark. And just like like the GTO she’ll either crash and burn or everything else in the vicinity is going to eat dust.

2017-01-11_dps

Sticking with American classics theme – here’s Doctor Pepper (created in 1880 – did you know?) which is painting a rather refreshing series of HHs and LLs on the daily panel.  The current shake out may just be a last kiss goodbye before it peels rubber and heads higher. So here I plan to be long on a recovery above the NLBL at 90.76 with a stop below 89.

2017-01-11_dps_financhill

Seasonality is looking a bit flat here which means we may have to be patient. But it’s not pointing down either and the starting in spring it’s got a habit of burning the shorts. Friendly reminder, you can click on the chart to get to the live version at Financhill which has cool tools and statistics.

More setups below the fold – please grab your secret decoder ring and join me in the lair:

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Back To Reality

Now dreaming about the future can be a lot of fun (of course your mileage may vary) but until we actually get there there’s quite a bit of work left to be done. After all those fancy hover cars and food replicators won’t pay for themselves. Or perhaps – will they? 

Since after Christmas I have been quietly observing the relative lack of progress in equities whilst attempting to form a halfway intelligent idea of what may lay ahead. Meanwhile the Dow has been flirting with the 20,000 mark and just missed it by a few pennies on Tuesday. Clearly rounded numbers have little significance beyond the psychological milestones, but it’s clear that the mojo we experienced ahead of Christmas has been suspiciously absent.

2017-01-10_spoos_rv

Our realized volatility indicator may offer at least some answers. The patterns we have been observing has been one of exploding RV followed by a drop which often (but not always) turns into a depleting volatility trending period (DVTP). How long that trending period can persist in part depends on the preceding peak in RV. A good example is the sudden drop last summer followed by a gradual falloff during the ensuing ramp higher.

Of course that isn’t always the case. Depleting volatility can also be accompanied by sideways tape, especially if the prior RV peak was gradual and less pronounced. When attempting to plot the path forward it’s perilous to convince oneself that the very same scenario is once again beyond the horizon. However, that said, as events unfolds the probabilities do start to gradually narrow. For example the chart above shows us that the current depletion of RV seems to have been concluded as RV is once again on the rise. This possibility would gain more credence in particular if (and only if) the indicator once again pushes above the upper standard deviation and thus turns green.

Because if it does then probabilities once again shift toward an increase in RV and that means a fast move (up or down) would take quite a few participants by surprise. If that fast move resolves to the upside then the potential for a blow off top (and the trigger of Dow 20k celebration) raise considerably. Once that happens we would be looking for a reversal pattern, at minimum a spike high but I would prefer a valid Retest Variation Short pattern.

However if it resolves to the downside then I would actually be looking for buying opportunities, especially if it happens before the Dow scrapes the 20k mark. I concede that this perspective is rather contrarian but unless I see a clear trend trading signal I cannot justify being long here.

In case you wonder a trend trading signal would be a failure of the RTV-S pattern or a breach of a prior significant spike high. If nothing else in times like these our Zero indicator should also be giving us valuable clues, e.g. participation and possible divergences suggesting either accumulation or distribution.

2017-01-10_silver

Now silver was a great entry yesterday and I actually had it marked for you guys until I got sucked into writing about virtual reality and our glorious future as 21st century traders. However that setup has actually gained in probability now and I’ll be sure to grab a long position in a drop back to the 16 mark. My stop would be a respectable distance away near 15.38.

The weekly panel suggests that it’s really high time for silver to either finish its business or get off the pot. Let’s not forget that the trend is still to the downside here and currently near a possible reversal point. However it’s also possible that silver may finally reach escape velocity and break the current trend.

Of course that means that a short position right here and with a stop above the recent highs may turn out the right way to go. If you’re sharing that view then this is a good spot to pull the trigger.

More setups below the fold.

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Welcome Back BobbyLow!

After a little row misunderstanding last year I was elated to see that Bobby Low has decided to return to our comment section. Bobby has been a long term participant and prolific contributor here at Evil Speculator and I consider his return a very good omen for the new year. Welcome back buddy!

Solid Kick Off

Given that it was only the second session of the year plus a dreaded FOMC day I’d say we are kicking off the season as well as anyone could ask for. But let’s remain cautions for now as it’s easy to get caught up in the early excitement, which often leads to a major smack down towards mid-January.2017-01-05_silver_entry

Yesterday’s theme was a binary silver entry and it today appears that we may be getting the short sell scenario. However I’m not seeing a convincing RTV-S formation just yet and have decided to use the overnight spike low as our entry threshold. Stop would be placed above 16.8 – if it pushes above it then precious metals may attempt to make a run for it.

2017-01-05_copper_update

Yesterday’s long campaign in copper is looking pretty damn good right now and I’ve decided to advance my stop to the break/even mark. If she’s going to run then most likely it’ll happen before the week is over.

2017-01-05_crude_update

Now if you aren’t long crude right now then you only have yourself to blame because for some mysterious reason you weren’t a subscriber yet (or snoozed which is worse). May I humbly suggest that you remedy the situation post haste before reading on?

Anyway, if you took it then good for you and you may now do what I just did, which is to pad yourself on the shoulder for pulling the trigger in the perfect spot and then move your stop to the break/even mark.

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By the way, only 31 more days until Super Bowl LI! Unfortunately it’s almost impossible for me to catch the game live over here in Europe. Does anyone happen to know how to watch it online?

Running With Silver Futures

I have no idea why people insist on wearing footwear that’s should be easily visible to the naked eye all the way up at the International Space Station. “Oh look – there goes Bill again – he’s up early for his morning run today!” Whenever you think that attention whoring has reached its maximum peak the intrepid engineers at Nike go to work and prove you wrong yet once again. Well done! And I thought three stripes on my Adidas pants were a bit flashy…

2017-01-04_silver

So obviously the topic of the day are the silver futures, just not the ones you wear to blind pilots and cause airplane crashes near international airports. I’m seeing a dual entry opportunity which may not be immediately apparent. It’s tempting to go long here as silver seems to be packing for a trip towards 17 and higher.

Long near 16.2

However being the crusty old cynic that I am it would take a retest to 16.2 to get me excited about a long opportunity. For one because precious metals have a nasty habit to run a hare ahead of big directional moves, just to stick it to you guys and cause general mayhem.

Short near 16.8ish

Now if it manages to push higher and paint a Retest Variation Short (RTV) then I’d tempted to take out a small short position in expectation of yet another slap down as seen numerous times over the past few weeks.

2017-01-04_copper

We’re sticking with the futures theme today – next runner up is copper. Which is a long here or > 2.47 if you can grab it this low. Stop should be set below 2.45 – add a few more ticks if you manage to get in lower.

But I had to keep my most favorite symbol today for my subs – please meet me in the lair:

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It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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FOMC Announcement

2017-01-04_fomc

Apparently intents on starting the year with a bang. Watch your six around 2:00pm Eastern.

Under The Weather

It’s a bleak rainy Friday in Valencia and it doesn’t help matters that I appear to have picked up my wife’s nasty head cold. Which she to no doubt had the pleasure of contracting owing to the fact that the basic principle of human to human pathogenic transmission seems to be a completely alien concept over here in Spain. Apparently the joys of coughing your lungs out for a week on straight is a seasonal tradition everyone is eager to pass on to the next guy. Damn socialists – they truly stop at nothing! Anyway after a rather unpleasant night I feel and look like as if I was just pulled through a drain pipe, with a mood to match. So let’s get on with it, shall we?

After big moves since Wednesday most forex and futures symbols are still shot to hell. Not much edge in there at least until after the weekend but let’s remember that Christmas is one week away and thus participation is rapidly going to diminish after next Wednesday.

2016-12-16_tesla

I’m still waiting for a touch of 203 in Tesla, and given how much time it’s spending here I may have to advance that entry to 204.

2016-12-16_tslac

My Ninja charts show you a bit more context on the daily and weekly panels. Note the weekly NLBL at 202.49 on the right panel.

2016-12-16_has

Hasbro has been dropping hard yesterday and seasonally it’s usually soft in December.

2016-12-16_hasc

Which makes it a great long candidate once it descends a bit lower toward 82. Great weekly context there as well and this could turn into a runner in January.

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It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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gluhwein-625x336

Alright, that’s about all I can muster up today. I’m off to brewing myself a nice hot cup of spiked Glühwein. Here’s me wishing you a pleasant and pathogen free weekend.

The Yellen Crush

It seems like along with a new POTUS (which one exactly still remains to be seen) we also seem to be getting an entirely new FOMC monetary policy, as Yellen appears to suddenly have discovered new faith in God and higher interest rates. The increase in the federal funds rate to a range between 0.5% and 0.75% was expected but came along with the prospect of brisker monetary tightening. And not surprisingly all hell broke loose… well, at least over in forex and precious metals:
2016-12-15_silver_update

Which of course sent our silver campaign on an express elevator to the woodshed. I’m glad we moved our stop to a bit above break/even on Tuesday as we at least got out with half an R in petty cash.

2016-12-15_eur_crushed

My very promising EUR campaign also got stomped courtesy of a ramp in the Dollar. As a consolation the EUR/USD exchange rate has shifted even closer to par. If that trend continues over the next year I may be able to rent a bigger palace here in Valencia

2016-12-15_tslac

Okay, as futures and forex are shot to hell let’s look at some stock symbols today. Tesla is looking like a possible sell, assuming it pushes back up a bit further toward 203.

2016-12-15_tsla

You can click on the chart to get a dynamic version. Seasonality is pointing down over the coming month, which may work in our favor.

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It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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Bonus Chart:

2016-12-15_crude

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