No Escape From Winter

Did I mention that I hate winter? I wish I could tell you that I am all back to my normal devious self, but unfortunately I’m still trying to shake what has turned out to be one nasty head cold. My wife’s actually had it for almost a week now as well as apparently every other Spaniard we hear walk by our house judging by the incessant coughing and sneezing. Honestly I think this will be the last winter I’ll be spending over here in Europe. Even down here in Spain the humid weather and short daylight hours eventually catch up with you. I was actually considering to make an emergency run for the South but even in Tenerife it’s only a few degrees warmer with rain on the way. Unless I’m prepared to head back to L.A. or somewhere to South East Asia there is no escaping winter!


So as I’m going to be relatively useless on the trading front let’s at least run through a few major symbols starting with the spoos. It’s still looking pretty bullish and it’s quite possible that we’ll have another run higher ahead of us. That diagonal I painted on the short term panel may serve you to stage your entry. Personally I’d probably stay out until there’s better medium term context.


Stay out of bonds for now – I’ll leave it at that 


Crude continues to be heaven or purgatory, depending on your trading style. It’s the former if you simply enjoy trading the swings and the latter if you are looking for a long term entry. I personally like both approaches but would not want to be long here until it drops back to 45 or makes moves to actually breach LT resistance overhead, followed by a retest. And that is most definitely not going to happen before Christmas.


Silver triggered a weekly sell signal last Friday and let’s remember that it is in the process of doing the same on the monthly. Could get even uglier there in precious metals, so unless I see a very compelling reason I’m not going to attempt any long entries here anytime soon.


The Yen on a rampage all last week and it’s that one entry that got away in late October. For now I don’t see an edge here and if you’re already long then I would probably suggest that you hold it.


Last but not least the Euro which just doesn’t seem to be able to find a decent bid. Last week it actually dropped through previous all time lows and briefly traded below the 1.04 mark. I’m pretty jazzed about it obviously as I earn/trade in $s and spend in €s. Life’s getting quite a bit cheaper over here – which it may as well, as I’m not paying top Dollar for such a lousy climate! Anyway, no good entry here either until we either see a pull back or drop toward par.

And with that I hope you can forgive me if I cut out here. Hopefully by tomorrow I’ll finally be in better shape again.

The Yellen Crush

It seems like along with a new POTUS (which one exactly still remains to be seen) we also seem to be getting an entirely new FOMC monetary policy, as Yellen appears to suddenly have discovered new faith in God and higher interest rates. The increase in the federal funds rate to a range between 0.5% and 0.75% was expected but came along with the prospect of brisker monetary tightening. And not surprisingly all hell broke loose… well, at least over in forex and precious metals:

Which of course sent our silver campaign on an express elevator to the woodshed. I’m glad we moved our stop to a bit above break/even on Tuesday as we at least got out with half an R in petty cash.


My very promising EUR campaign also got stomped courtesy of a ramp in the Dollar. As a consolation the EUR/USD exchange rate has shifted even closer to par. If that trend continues over the next year I may be able to rent a bigger palace here in Valencia


Okay, as futures and forex are shot to hell let’s look at some stock symbols today. Tesla is looking like a possible sell, assuming it pushes back up a bit further toward 203.


You can click on the chart to get a dynamic version. Seasonality is pointing down over the coming month, which may work in our favor.


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Bonus Chart:


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