America, We Have A Problem

I’ll spare you my personal thoughts regarding the FOMC’s non-taper announcement just minutes ago. If you have been visiting here for more than a few weeks then you know my general outlook on how the game is being played. And if you’re new here then let me boil it down for you: The crooks always win in the end and there is no final justice. Swallow your anger, embrace the pain, and try to ride their coat tails.

However, we have a much more pressing problem. Mere minutes before the announcement I happened to look at the DX and produced the chart shown above. If you’re a sub then you probably recall that I had pointed at the 81 mark as our final LT line in the sand.

Well, thanks to Bernanke & Friends that line in the sand was just washed away by a veritable ‘risk back on’ rip tide which washed ole’ bucky all the way below 80.5. I had my order waiting but got a lousy fill – no surprise there. The day isn’t over and perhaps we’ll recover some of that emotional territory but this is very very bad news – or in other words: America, we have a problem.

This is a technical LT short entry and the current target is near 77.5. From a trading perspective this is a fine entry and it’s supported by the P&F shown above (which my subs probably recall). A close below 80.5 will seal a triple bottom break out and increase the odds that this target will be touched.

From a general perspective as an (expat) American this makes me extremely sad as the Dollar’s purchasing power was just eroded a little further. In the international currency free-fall race to the bottom it seems that Bernanke is determined to win the game at all cost. I can’t blame him as it’s the only bullet left in his arsenal. But the further financial damage this is going to inflict on working class Americans (and other people across the world – this is not an isolated issue) will be tremendous. I don’t have to explain to you how stretched to the max folks are out there and expect commodities (especially fuel) and food prices across the board to respond in kind.

Another sad day for America – unfortunately given the political stalemate and inability in Washington the best we can do is to protect ourselves by proper hedging. I have been warning everyone about this situation for weeks and months now and I’m rather perturbed to see this DX trade having triggered.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

 

The post America, We Have A Problem appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

After some overnight sideways action the E-Mini has caught up with its 25-hour SMA and now has a choice – bust through a NLBL and lead higher or fail the 25-hour for yet another retest. This is going to get interesting as we have a rising 100-day SMA and a falling 25-day SMA with prices trapped between. I think 1660 is now the uncle point for the bears as the bulls will solidly run the action thereafter.

The Dollar has lost some of its mojo over the past few sessions and is now in the process of failing both its 100-h and 25-h SMAs. I’m currently short with a stop above the 82.32 NLBL.


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

The post Thursday Morning Briefing appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Post Labor Day Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

It’s been pretty quiet over the long weekend and I don’t see much additional context except for the fact that the E-Mini is still trading above its 100-day SMA. There’s a bit of compression on the 25-hour Bollinger and perhaps we’ll see more volatility later in the session.

The Dollar continues to observe its 25-hour SMA and unless we see a solid breach here (not just a quick scare-the-children stab lower) I expect it to push higher.

The inverse happening on the EUR/USD obviously although it’s starting to flatten out a little. Watch our for attempts to breach the 25-hour which make for good inflection points – if there are ST candle patterns (via CrazyIvan.EURUSD.30) then use them.

Here’s the volatility profile courtesy of the CrazyIvan.EURUSD.480 – as you can see it’s currently in Bear/Quiet mode and that usually makes for shitty trading. Which is the reason the 480 is currently filtering long and short trades. Now that’s something we do for automated trading systems as it keeps us out of sideways or low probability tape over the long term. But the downside of any type of volatility filters/measures is that they are inherently lagging. The benefit of trading discretionary is that you can often anticipate and catch the first big moves as volatility starts kicking in.

Silver is looking interesting on the ST panel as the 25-hour just breached the 100-hour SMA. I am going to try a very speculative long position here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. If it continues higher I’ll slowly build it up.

Public Service Announcement:

In case you missed it – make sure to check out our brand spanking new (and kick-ass) futures risk calculator. A nifty little utility you will quickly get addicted to (one more step toward market domination).

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

The post Post Labor Day Morning Briefing appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Told Ya To Pay Attention

Today’s bounce was no surprise to us rats as the writing was on the wall before the NYSE opened. If you have any pertinent doubts then check my early morning briefing – and if you missed it I suggest you sign up so you come better prepared next time. Well, that’s now in the past, so let’s look at where we may be heading:

The E-Mini is pushing toward its 100-hour SMA but there’s still ground to be covered. The 100-hour happens to line up with a new NLBL on the daily – conveniently positioned at 1662. Expect some resistance starting at 1660.

As I’m seeing a bit of a signal divergence we may be running out of juice here soon but let’s see what the final hour of today’s session brings us.

The long term panels shown for a bit of context – recall that the weekly NLSL at 1665.75 should be the make or break point for the bulls (and bears). The monthly however shows us that we have not even begun to paint a correct, despite all the Hindenburg Omen hype of the past weeks. Besides, what everyone knows is not worth knowing.

The NQ at its 25-day SMA now – a breach higher would be bullish. It’s already trading above its 100-hour SMA.

Quick update on Cotton which was a great short this morning. Our early morning entry has paid in spates. I doubt many of you took it but if you did then I suggest you scale out post haste.

The equities side is however a sideshow right now – I’m a lot more worried about the fate of the greenback as we are approaching an important inflection point. For more details please step into my lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

The post Told Ya To Pay Attention appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

We Have Movement!

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Plenty of juicy setups yesterday evening and we’ve had movement across the board overnight – I hope you guys are present an accounted for. Here is the E-Mini which proceeded downward almost immediately after the close. We are now in an IP-S short and although I cannot promise that it’ll go anywhere there is nothing for us to do but sit and wait right now.

The NQ a bit more bullish recently than the spoos and I’m not surprised that the IP-S breach has not progressed as far.

You may remember the hammer long on crude yesterday – so far in good shape and you had to chances to jump in – at the IP trigger and at the NLBL breach near 107.27.

The Dollar is in the process of triggering its IP-S – but not mojo in this one just yet.

Platinum – also triggered its hammer (yesterday’s highs) and I’m now long with a stop near the 1,484.3 NLSL.

EUR/USD – our IP-L triggered overnight but pulled back near the upper trigger. You recall that this is one of my favorites right now.

Silver – yes, I know this is a daily chart. We’ve had a good ride to the upside – you may recall our inside week setup a few weeks ago – plus there was the monthly SMA play. Anyway, I’m expecting some resistance shortly so you may want to scale out and wait for instructions. On the short term side look for a breach of the 25-hour SMA. Although this would be a brief play – plenty of support below.

More below – please step into my lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

The post We Have Movement! appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Enjoy The Roller Coaster

Seems to me Six Flags is testing out its new virtual NYSE roller coaster this week. You and your family get a free bonus ride when you open a retail account over at participating bucket shops. Hell, it’s a blast at first until you start puking up your lunch. I shouldn’t complain as we’ve played the swings pretty well but this is no time to become complacent or over confident. Obviously technical damage has been done and the bulls are having a tough time to keep the cart from flying off the rails.

So we’re back from whence we came this morning – the 100-hour SMA was challenged but then served as a trampoline for a bounce back toward the brick wall still standing at 1645.75 (i.e. our daily NLBL). From there we just dropped like a rock and who knows what comes next – we are in complete limbo here. Play the swings – by all means – but keep an eye on that 100-hour and the daily NLBL. That diagonal that once used to serve as resistance also seems to act as support now, so we do have a bit of context. I plan to be short below 1621 – currently short term long above 1628.25 and will hold long above the daily NLBL at 1645.75. Hope all that makes sense – if not ask.

Meanwhile over at the woodshed the Dollar is once again circling the toiletbowl. Yesterday we apparently had a last kiss goodbye of the 100-day SMA and it’s falling away fast now. Note that it just breached a weekly NLSL and the 25-week SMA.

Not looking good and if this trend continues I will have to switch you subs over to Monopoly dollars. Heck, my ATM here in Spain is starting to print Dollar jokes on my transaction receipt – in Spanish of course so I don’t get half the jokes. Here’s today’s version (roughly translated):

What is more sexy, an American or a Canadian dollar?

The American of course …it goes down more often.


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

The post Enjoy The Roller Coaster appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Tuesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Here’s yesterday’s E-Mini session as observed via the Zero indicator. That bullish divergence at the bottom gave you plenty of time to lighten up and perhaps drop into some longs. Crank up the tune and watch those Mole signals point the way.

The E-Mini has managed to hold its 25-hour overnight and thus far it remains above its NLSL. First hurdle ahead will be the 100-hour near 1642.

Crude – very nice setup as the 100-hour is meeting the 25-hour SMA. I’d be long above the 100-h and short below the 25-h SMA.

The greenback is continuing its drop lower and it now seems that its 25-hour is once again observed as resistance.

AUD/JPY – short here below the 25-hour with stop near the 100-hour SMA. Long only above 97.23 which is the hourly NLBL – once that passes us use that diagonal I painted.


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

The post Tuesday Morning Briefing appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Short Entries Triggered

After having coded almost non-stop over the past few weeks (on top of blogging and trading) I am beginning to feel the burn. So I hope you forgive me if I make this a very quick update focusing solely on the equity side – which incidentally triggered the Retest Variation Sell entries proposed in yesterday’s post:

If you missed it earlier then the NQ may be your best bet right now as it’s still near the RTV Short trigger of 2,985. As you can see the strategy is already short with a stop right at the last NLBL – rather convenient.

And here are the spoos – already trading below the entry and if you missed that one – well, perhaps it’ll push back higher into the close. However strictly by the rules, even if we push back above the triggers we do have official short entries across all three today – on the NQ, the ES, and the YM.

The Dollar has been running in circles for the past ten days or so and this is a good example of a volatile sideways market.

I don’t have the DX over on the NinjaTrader side but I did pull up the EUR/USD for you guys. The three indicators you see below are my newest creations and are a direct copy of Ben Brower’s most excellent TradeStation indicators. The purpose of the exercise is to objectively measure market conditions – which means market trend, volatility, and current direction. The current reading of ‘bull/volatile’sideways’ tells me that the Euro is still in a bullish period but currently stuck in a volatile/ sideways cycle. Bear in mind that market direction does not necessarily equal trend but of course that also depends a bit on how you measure it.

A volatile sideways market tells us indecision with buyers and sellers battling it out in entrenched positions. Common sense suggests that whichever side loses this battle will be squeezed once a direction has crystalized.

In case you wonder – these three indicators will become an integral aspect of the CrazyIvan strategy I’m currently working on for the E-Mini (and which will become a subscription product in the near future). Most likely this one will run on a 15-minute chart and pick its entries based on carefully defined market condition filters. For instance reversal trades such as a RTV Sell may not work very well in a strongly trending market (i.e. bullish and volatile) – at least that’s what we’re finding on short term charts. Inside periods however seem to be more agnostic to market direction.

Words To The Wise: I’m looking across various markets today and it seems that the tape is intent on screwing with everyone – bulls and bears alike. So be careful, don’t get over exposed, and expect to be whipsawed around. That suggests small initial position sizing paired with pyramiding as your positions move into favorable directions. Don’t bet the bank here and don’t chew off more than you can afford to lose. Tape like this is designed to shake out weak hands before it takes off like gangbusters.

Alright – that’s it for today – see you all again tomorrow morning before the bell.

 

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

The post Short Entries Triggered appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Tuesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

I hope you enjoyed a relaxing Memorial Day weekend as we’ve going to hit the ground running today, so grab a cup of java (or tea) and roll up your sleeves. We literally have setups crawling out of the woodwork this morning – let’s get to it: The DX continues to be stomped again and is now approaching its 25-hour SMA where it’ll either find a buyer or probably sink lower today.

Copper pinned between both its SMAs – great inflection point.

Sugar – enjoying support of a NLSL and two SMAs below – right now I’m long with a stop below the 25-hour.

EUR/AUD at its 100-hour SMA – simple binary setup. My brand spanking new VolStat indicator suggests that we’ve got some volatility coming :-)

GBP/USD looking like a possible long right now. Once again volatility has been flat and perhaps we’re cycling back into a period of decent activity.

But we’re just getting warmed up – a ton of charts waiting below for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Public Service Announcement: While most of you guys have been enjoying your three day weekend (or more) the lowly Mole has been slaving away in his lair diligently working on new fiendish schemes:

I’m not even kidding – I have been coding almost non-stop since Friday night and am happy to announce that CrazyIvan now looks stable enough to be deployed into alpha this week. Both Scott and I have been working our butts off over the past four months and it’s really starting to pay off. Above you can see all theoretical signals being plotted in gray with the taken ones in green and red. I’m also plotting the won/lost ticks/pips but that part is still a bit rough around the edges. I couldn’t begin to list the number of improvements and fixes I have put into this over the past few weeks – the code base now has grown to well over 2500 lines of code.

Scott and I are also working on a 15-minute S&P futures version which will be the first of many to be let loose onto my stainless steel rats in the coming months. More details will be forthcoming shortly :-)

Cheers,

The post Tuesday Morning Briefing appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely

As you probably know by now I despise FOMC days. Statistically speaking being long ahead of Bernanke’s announcements has produced a significant edge in the past few years but I usually bow out as I categorically refuse to participate in a market swinging wildly based on cryptic phrases delivered by the high priests of modern Keynesian finance. Call me weird but I abhor the sheer concept of giving a small group of private bankers such an inordinate amount of power over our financial system. But for some reason everyone continues to accept it as the status quo. Jefferson surely rolls in his grave. As the old saying goes – power corrupts, but absolute power corrupts absolutely.

This is the chart that has captured most of my attention right now. On a long term basis the DX has breached and continues to hold a very important technical inflection point. I have reported on this in much detail already (and more than once) so I won’t test your patience by regurgitating old news. But it’s good to see that ole’ bucky is clinging to the 84 mark and has managed to hold it through all that FOMC madness.

The hourly panel shows us back at the upper 100-hour SMA and at a brand spanking new NLBL at 84.4. This should be our new best friend as a push above it will probably lead us higher. A failure here is going to result in a roll over and who knows what next.

As a reminder here’s the P&F – now suggesting a rather juicy price objective but of course that all is predicated on pushing above 84.5 (this chart has not been updated today – it’s yesterday’s view – just FYI).

BIDU trade update – after running like hare gravity started to suddenly ruin the party and we’re getting closer to whence we came. In terms of managing this trade I think that the 100-hour SMA will be an important inflection point – your stops should be below that one. The 100-day SMA is only a handle lower and if you prefer use that to either reload (a retest of prior support is not unusual) or to kick it to the curb if we drop below. In terms of shorting BIDU I don’t see this is a good spot just yet – I’ll check again tomorrow once we have a bit more clarification.

More positive update from the crude front – actually there are two-fold. First, if you recall my early morning briefing – I was waiting for that 100-hour and 25-hour to come to a point to get positioned and things couldn’t have worked out better. Great short opportunity at the 25-hour and once it dropped through the 100-hour the writing was on the wall. I would take profits now and call it another short term winner for the team.

On the daily panel you recall the short entry two days ago near those lofty heights near that 97.5 mark. If you took a short there then probably want to start scaling out as the 100-hour is nearby.

A few more goodies below for my intrepid subs – we actually have a few nice setups on the equities front today. Please step into my lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

The post Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

1 2 3 5