Stock Slinging

It seems that most forex and futures symbols continue to run in circles ahead of the Friday presidential inauguration and unfortunately I found little to share on that front. Which leaves us only with stock symbols but fortunately I was able to uncover a few goodies.


First a quick update on our LXP campaign which I posted for the subs last week. We snagged a pretty decent entry and thus far it’s sticking to the script. Time to advance or stop to near the break/even mark at 10.79.


APC is a possible long term campaign which is why I’m showing you the weekly and monthly panels. As you can see it’s been trading inside of tight range for the past few weeks and I’m sure it wants out. As it’s near the lower boundary plus given the monthly context I am tempted to grab a long position with a stop below 68.


Seasonality courtesy of Financhill – click on the chart or here to look at a dynamic chart plus some juicy stats. I don’t see any red flags here so this is a go for me.


LOW has been trading even lower lately but managed to reconquer a daily NLBL plus its 100-day SMA. I’m interested in a long position but only if it drops back down to the 72 mark. Stop would be placed below 70 – how’s that for nice round numbers?


Seasonality very supportive – we’re looking good here.


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Equities Laying Low

One aspect I hate about winter, beside the dismal weather of course, is that we seem to hopping from one long holiday into the next. With the obvious result that pretty much nothing gets done. The situation is even worse over here in Spain where we’ve had on average at least one regional holiday scheduled every week. I kid you not. And that list doesn’t even account for Las Fallas which starts on March 1st and gradually turns Valencia into the Mediterranean equivalent of Sodom and Gomorrah by the time it ends on March 19th. I often wonder when those Spaniards actually do work as statistics claim that they work more hours per year on average as the Germans and of course the French. With all that time devoted to holidays, how can they find the time?

At least over in the U.S. you guys enjoy clear skies until Washington’s birthday on February 20th. However Trump gets sworn in on January 20th and given that I don’t expect much in terms of directional movement on the equities side until at least a day or two after – depending how much fireworks (ahem) we’ll actually be seeing.


Now you know that I’m not a slacker but must concede that this constant off and on really doesn’t help me get into the flow of things. It’s extremely difficult to maintain a trading campaign if participation keeps disappearing two days ahead of a three or four day weekend. And apparently I’m not alone as mid January is usually the period when we see some of the exuberance of the recent Santa rally is being corrected courtesy of low participation tape. Except that this year we’ve been getting more of those sideways gyration we’ve all loved to hate throughout most of 2016.

Anyway, based on the recent sequence of spike lows I’m somewhat tempted to grab a long position here, however it would have to be a near perfect entry in the vicinity of the 100-hour SMA. The context on the daily panel is supportive but is getting dangerously close to running out of mojo, which could be easily exploited by an organized stop run. On the positive side however we are building a strong base here which may aid us in the future.


The YM actually shows us slightly better context and splitting your exposure between that one and the ES may not be a bad idea. For one I like that diagonal on the hourly as well as the touch of the lower 25-day Bollinger.


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Anchoring And The Bandwagon

I’ve been tangentially following the news at a safe distance over the past week and frankly felt tempted to pinch myself every once in a while, just to make sure that I’m not just experiencing some surreal nightmare. And perhaps to take a shower just to be on the safe side. As a rule I have kept political discussions at a minimum here at Evil Speculator in order to stay on mission (i.e. banking coin) and to not pollute the discourse with emotionally charged exchanges. But the current train wreck over the latest allegations involving President-elect Trump and a supposed Russian sex trap involving urination was just too sweet to pass up. Probably not in the way you think however. Rather it serves as a great example of two cognitive biases – anchoring and the bandwagon effect. Both are closely related.


So first of all ask yourself this: What do we really know about this whole sordid affair? Did we see an actual video of what allegedly happened in Russia? No we did not. What we did see were a lot of allegations and hearsay without a single credible shred of proof. And no matter what your political orientation and no matter how much you may wish that it may be true, this usually should be the very moment where you simply fade out the noise and wait for proof.

Unless of course you are professionally involved in this – in which case using it to your political advantage is fair game. Politics is war and if you’re a politically engaged Democrat then you certainly won’t miss out on an opportunity to smear or discredit a person you believe is the next anti-Christ and a disaster for America. And clearly if you’re an active Trump supporter then your job is to fight these allegations tooth and nail, or perhaps even use it against the opposition.

And yes, I get it. For many of you arguing about politics is not only a passion but also a release from many of the frustrations and problems you may be experiencing in your own life. But it’s important to always remind yourself of how all this is affecting you as a person. Ask yourself how clickbait like this may be anchoring you into thinking patterns which may easily be exploited by outside parties. Also ask yourself how pressing your emotional buttons may affect your own discourse with people who oppose your core beliefs. Does it make you more angry at them? At minimum spending time immersing yourself into the subject is a personal investment you will have to justify. Because it is time you could have spent improving yourself, enriching the lives of your friends and family, or just simply working hard to get yourself into a higher tax bracket. Always remember, if you’re not paying for it then you’re most likely the product.

Anchoring is a very devious practice which apparently seems to have been perfected to a science by social media outlets and most recently the mainstream media. You have to realize that by exposing yourself to a carefully crated set of information you are being effectively anchored into particular thinking patterns that will later affect your personal decision making process. It may even create psychological stress which on a long term basis may lead to a whole host of physical diseases. Even worse, it actually opens you up for mental manipulation in other areas that affect you professionally, trading of course being one of them.

I admit that it’s extremely difficult to resist anchoring and it takes constant practice and mental discipline. If I tell you to not think about an elephant and a mouse right now then it’s most likely exactly what you’re envisioning in your head. That’s how easy it is. And suddenly we’re thinking about elephants, feisty rodents, and who knows what else – it’s a slippery slope.

The Bandwagon Effect

So why are we even talking about Trump and sex tapes in the first place? Because everyone else is, that’s why. But who started it and why? Maybe there really is fire because there appears to be smoke. After all everyone seems to be believing it – are are they? Or is someone simply crying wolf to further a particular political agenda? The latter may be unfair or morally detestable but we all know that life ain’t fair and there are no rules in love and war. Politics is a full contact sport and nobody cares about the losers. Who again ran against Bush and Clinton in 1992?

It was Ross Perot – who by the way put up some really cool charts! But you get my point. When it comes to controlling the most powerful political position on this planet things have a tendency to get dirty and there are no second winners. Discrediting your political opponents is the name of the game and until society as a whole evolves toward a more enlightened median there’s nothing we can do about that.

But what we can do is retain control of our own thinking process. Because it’s effectively being highjacked on a constant basis without you even realizing it. Especially in the mainstream media as well as in the financial media. Just because everyone is talking about something does not necessarily mean that it is true. Unless of course it has been proven without doubt. So next time you come across some juicy headline the best thing you can do for yourself is to simply ignore it. Because if there is actually any proof available at the time then you can be damn sure that it’ll be mentioned right below that headline. Which actually makes controlling what you let past your mental gate surprisingly easy.

So next time you come across some headline that Trump or Clinton or anyone else you are supposed to care about is engaged in some depraved sexual activity simply look for unequivocal proof accompanying it. If there is none and all you see is a wall of text then it may be better to devote the next ten minutes of your life more productively. I promise that you won’t be missing out on anything.

Evil Speculator Rule #467: Life is short – don’t waste it on rubbernecking. 

Evil Speculator Rule # 532: Control your mind or someone else is going to do it for you.


Class In Session

I’m going to cover two important topics today which both relate to realized volatility (RV) and in particular how to trade your way around it. If you’ve been a trader for a while then you probably have noticed that volatility profiles differ substantially on the short term when compared with the long term. In essence volatility has a tendency to decrease toward the long term. Nevertheless many traders treat those charts the same when designing their systems, e.g. how and where they enter, where they place their stop loss, and how they handle campaign management. 

The shorter the time frame the closer people seem to be placing their stops, which of course is directly related to the visual perspective at the current time when observing for example a 30-minute or hourly chart. And that’s fine if you’re a scalper and have defined a statistically proven edge accordingly. But of course RV can still affect your campaigns in ways you didn’t expect. And those in particular can often lead to frustration and anger, both very detrimental to keeping an even psychological keel on a daily basis.


Take silver for example which we entered two days ago and yesterday I suggested that we advance our stop loss to near break/even. Now it’s quite possible that your entry was near mine, e.g. the 16.6 mark and if you trailed it with a regular stop and got taken out just before it turned on a dime and headed back higher. If that’s you then don’t feel bad – silver is a naughty and most difficult (and may I say expensive) contract to be trading and it happens to the best of us.

However there are ways I employ to protect myself against stop runners, in particular in contracts like silver, crude, and even the spoos. First up you can be more conservative and always place your stops below major spike lows. That helps but retests often drop a few ticks/pips below them. So what to do?

The Lazy Trail

The lazy trail is something I implemented into an older version of Scalpius a year or two back and it actually worked exactly as hoped in alleviating the damage done by stop runners and genuine retests. Basically the way it works is based on a timer. As soon as your stop level is reached the timer triggers and once that timer runs out (10 seconds or 10 minutes later – based on your setting) your system exits if price is still trading below your set threshold. Alternatively your timer can also be counting down based on ticks, so every time price ticks below it deducts one all the way down to zero where it finally executes. That is actually the technique I used and it worked well, especially on trend trading systems that remain active for days or even weeks on end.

The Closed Trail

The closed trail is even simpler and can be equally effective. Your threshold is only observed on candle roll overs, it doesn’t care about what happens in between. Which makes it very easy to code into an automated system incidentally. The idea here is to prevent exactly the types of shake outs that happened yesterday in silver. You may have noticed that 16.6 was touched but it never closed at or below it. And if you look at the left panel above then you’ll notice that especially silver does this stuff on a constant basis. So if you use a regular stop loss order then you’ve probably been missing out on juicy profits on several occasions in the past.

The Full Stop

Of course both of these approaches require you to set a regular stop a reasonable distance away, which is your emergency exit in case of wild market fluctuations. That can be your ISL or it can be something else – it’s up to you. Just make sure it’s a market order so that you get filled when things start getting ugly.

Finally don’t ever use any of those fancy stops for your ISL – I recommend that you only facilitate them during your campaign management, and more specifically for trailing.


Another crucial but rarely covered topic are RV cycles and in particular sudden spikes. There are symbols which just happily chug along with the occasional spike here and there. And then there are the ones which have perfected it to a science and in the process inflict much misery and monetary losses especially on the retail trading community. Take the daily Euro for example as shown above. I have highlighted some of the wilder swings although it’s been one nasty ride here for over a year.

Now the other day I read an interesting page on the health impact of Bluetooth radiation and learned that it’s actually the rapid rise and fall times and the rate of change of the fields that inflict most of the biological damage. Wait a minute – what do Bluetooth pulses have to do with trading the Euro again? Well, absolutely nothing except that the Euro currently behaves like a giant pulsar. Not only does it change direction erratically and for no (apparent) reason, it also suddenly starts trending (as shown by the compressed bands in the lower panels), only to suddenly start flailing around again. But it’s the sudden phase changes (the changes in volatility) that really get you and is guaranteed to smash most trading systems into smithereens. If you’re trying to scalp then the trends will shoot way past your mean reversion zones, and if you’re trying to trend trade then you’ll be suddenly whipsawed to death.

There are three simple lessons here to be learned:

  • First up – train yourself to recognize symbols like that as in most cases it’s advisable to just stay away. You can use an ATR and just wrap a Bollinger around it.
  • Secondly only trade those symbols near long term inflection points, meaning support or resistance. On the EUR/USD that’s currently around 1.03 all the way up to 1.14.
  • Thirdly – if you’re scalping watch volatility like a hawk and try to avoid it. Symbols like the EUR which pulsate are actually tradeable during low volatility trending cycles. If you’re nimble enough to catch them that is.


Alright, quick update on our Dow futures campaign. If you were a sub you should be in this one. We actually barely escaped a stop run on this one as well (even with a regular stop) and I think I’ll be leaving the ISL in place for now. If it takes off then it should happen soon – recall that Monday is MKL day so we’ve got today and a few morning hours tomorrow before everyone calls it a long weekend.

One more setup below the fold:


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Ready For Action

I really had to drag my butt in front of my monitor this morning. Didn’t feel like trading and I for sure didn’t feel like I had it in me to do a post. But as the saying goes: No rest for the wicked. For I was quickly reminded of a sentiment I felt many times after convincing myself to brave lousy weather and hit the gym. For one I was glad that I went and most importantly I probably would have missed a kick ass session.


So let’s dive right in with an update on our silver campaign. Which barely triggered an entry near 16 yesterday, and I’m glad it did as it’s now time to advance our stop to break/even. I concede that it’s a bit early to do that but in this particular case we have a situation where silver is just about to either reach escape velocity or will most likely be stomped on again. Given the ongoing series of higher lows and higher highs it’s really time for this one to get out the gate.


Soybean Oil – yes, a bit of an exotic contract but I have enjoyed trading it in the past as it’s got a habit of jumping off like a 1964 GTO on nitro. Our evil mission of the day is to wait for a long entry near 35.4 and then put a stop somewhere below the 35 mark. And just like like the GTO she’ll either crash and burn or everything else in the vicinity is going to eat dust.


Sticking with American classics theme – here’s Doctor Pepper (created in 1880 – did you know?) which is painting a rather refreshing series of HHs and LLs on the daily panel.  The current shake out may just be a last kiss goodbye before it peels rubber and heads higher. So here I plan to be long on a recovery above the NLBL at 90.76 with a stop below 89.


Seasonality is looking a bit flat here which means we may have to be patient. But it’s not pointing down either and the starting in spring it’s got a habit of burning the shorts. Friendly reminder, you can click on the chart to get to the live version at Financhill which has cool tools and statistics.

More setups below the fold – please grab your secret decoder ring and join me in the lair:


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Back To Reality

Now dreaming about the future can be a lot of fun (of course your mileage may vary) but until we actually get there there’s quite a bit of work left to be done. After all those fancy hover cars and food replicators won’t pay for themselves. Or perhaps – will they? 

Since after Christmas I have been quietly observing the relative lack of progress in equities whilst attempting to form a halfway intelligent idea of what may lay ahead. Meanwhile the Dow has been flirting with the 20,000 mark and just missed it by a few pennies on Tuesday. Clearly rounded numbers have little significance beyond the psychological milestones, but it’s clear that the mojo we experienced ahead of Christmas has been suspiciously absent.


Our realized volatility indicator may offer at least some answers. The patterns we have been observing has been one of exploding RV followed by a drop which often (but not always) turns into a depleting volatility trending period (DVTP). How long that trending period can persist in part depends on the preceding peak in RV. A good example is the sudden drop last summer followed by a gradual falloff during the ensuing ramp higher.

Of course that isn’t always the case. Depleting volatility can also be accompanied by sideways tape, especially if the prior RV peak was gradual and less pronounced. When attempting to plot the path forward it’s perilous to convince oneself that the very same scenario is once again beyond the horizon. However, that said, as events unfolds the probabilities do start to gradually narrow. For example the chart above shows us that the current depletion of RV seems to have been concluded as RV is once again on the rise. This possibility would gain more credence in particular if (and only if) the indicator once again pushes above the upper standard deviation and thus turns green.

Because if it does then probabilities once again shift toward an increase in RV and that means a fast move (up or down) would take quite a few participants by surprise. If that fast move resolves to the upside then the potential for a blow off top (and the trigger of Dow 20k celebration) raise considerably. Once that happens we would be looking for a reversal pattern, at minimum a spike high but I would prefer a valid Retest Variation Short pattern.

However if it resolves to the downside then I would actually be looking for buying opportunities, especially if it happens before the Dow scrapes the 20k mark. I concede that this perspective is rather contrarian but unless I see a clear trend trading signal I cannot justify being long here.

In case you wonder a trend trading signal would be a failure of the RTV-S pattern or a breach of a prior significant spike high. If nothing else in times like these our Zero indicator should also be giving us valuable clues, e.g. participation and possible divergences suggesting either accumulation or distribution.


Now silver was a great entry yesterday and I actually had it marked for you guys until I got sucked into writing about virtual reality and our glorious future as 21st century traders. However that setup has actually gained in probability now and I’ll be sure to grab a long position in a drop back to the 16 mark. My stop would be a respectable distance away near 15.38.

The weekly panel suggests that it’s really high time for silver to either finish its business or get off the pot. Let’s not forget that the trend is still to the downside here and currently near a possible reversal point. However it’s also possible that silver may finally reach escape velocity and break the current trend.

Of course that means that a short position right here and with a stop above the recent highs may turn out the right way to go. If you’re sharing that view then this is a good spot to pull the trigger.

More setups below the fold.


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Welcome Back BobbyLow!

After a little row misunderstanding last year I was elated to see that Bobby Low has decided to return to our comment section. Bobby has been a long term participant and prolific contributor here at Evil Speculator and I consider his return a very good omen for the new year. Welcome back buddy!

The Future Of Being A Trader

This is not going to be a post about trading per se but rather about human machine interaction, the ubiquity of the 21st century workplace, and what it all means for us traders. Of course anything speculated and prognosticated here applies to many other white collar activities as well but for one this is a trading blog and secondly I believe that in particular traders and financial professionals will be among the groups most affected by what is coming our way.

I have long been an avid fan of virtual reality. And when I say long then I mean having built myself my own rudimentary head mounted display all the way back in 1990 via a pair of experimental 4” Sony displays I somehow had conned my way into plus a set of Leep optics I spent all my savings on to be sent all the way to Germany. I also built my own ‘dataglove’ by attaching fiber optic cables to a neoprene diving glove and then measuring the light escaping through a fine slit near my knuckles.  It worked just fine but putting it altogether was extremely challenging as the number crunching power simply wasn’t there yet plus I really sucked at coding back then.

A decade plus later I continued my obsession in all things VR and stereo-3d by building several stereoscopic display prototypes and actually wound up being credited with several pertinent U.S. patents. I also put together a few stereoscopic camera systems, some involving two electronically synchronized cameras, and some using a clever ‘TriDelta’ lens configuration which allowed me to record two horizontal images flipped 90 degrees with one single camera.

I’m not stating all this to brag but to make the point that I know the VR space well and to give you a general idea of where I am coming from. I am certainly no VR noob and doubt that I have been caught up in some fleeting hype. But as you can imagine I have been extremely excited about the recent developments in VR and in particular the exponential leaps made on the software and hardware side as well as the emergence of lightweight fresnel based VR optics. I could fill several posts just on that topic alone but let’s instead talk about the changes that will affect us the most: how and where we all will work and play in the not so distant future.

Although I’m a big VR/3d-stereo nut I have never been a huge gamer. Sure I can hold my own in a round of Half-Life and I will smash you in Call Of Duty. But these days I’m way to immersed in my work and in developing profitable trading systems than to spend my time sniping bad dudes in VR environments. But there is one class of VR applications that I simply cannot wait to get my hands on once technology has finally progressed beyond the early adopter phase:

Virtual Desktop

The aptly named Virtual Desktop is an application developed by Steam for the Oculus Rift and HTC Vive that lets you use your computer in VR. You can browse the web, watch movies, Netflix or even play games on a giant virtual screen. Envelope VR is a similar app and the company just released its first closed beta for what is described as “an immersive computing platform that brings the best out of your PC while in Virtual Reality.” Emphasis by the way is on ‘PC’ as it seems that Apple under Tim Cook has completely dropped the ball on hopping on the VR bandwagon. Which I expect Apple will pay dearly for a few years down the line. Great job, Timmy!

Now you may be surprised to learn that despite all the recent excitement I do not own a single HMD right now. And it is for the sole reason that the display resolutions of most HMDs on the market today is  still insufficient for the purposes I personally have in mind. Which of course is not gaming but trading and being able to take my virtual work environment with me wherever I choose to go.


But that is changing quickly as several companies are on the verge of releasing super high resolution displays specifically engineered for head mounted displays. Take for example Kopin which just announced a new 1” microdisplay called Lightning (shown above) with a resolution of 2048×2048 and a fast 120 Hz frame rate. That’s comparable to my old 2560×1600 32” Apple display which I still use eight years after I bought it. Just to be clear: we are talking almost the same amount of pixels here but shrunk into the space of a 1” square. Insane!

And I would certainly not mind paying top Dollar for a set of VR glasses or an HMD that features a 2048×2048 pixel microdisplay – per eye. And bear in mind that is just the visible resolution within your field of view (VOF). Imagine being able to pair your headset with several graphic cards and thus being able to simulate two or three monitors in your VR environment. Alternatively it would most likely be trivial to simply extend your active desktop inside your virtual space. And suddenly you are able to put windows and charts not just next to each other but above, below, and behind you.


All it takes to look at a different ‘screen’ is to simply turn your head or a hand gesture. The possibilities are limitless and rather mind boggling. Imagine yourself checking into a hotel in Puerto Vallarta and what you’ve got with you is a small laptop or a special mobile device as well as your head mounted display. You connect to the wireless Internet connection and then put on your HMD. And instantly you are in your virtual office, with all your trading apps, your charts, your browser, your email, everything. Instead of having to make due with a small laptop screen you are able to navigate a limitless VR environment with dozens and perhaps hundreds of windows and apps. William Gibson’s vision of Neuromancer is about to become reality. I just hope it will be a lot less dark and depressing.

VR Meet The Cloud

Computing power is of course an issue but even that limitation is already being addressed, perhaps even due to the fact that Apple has been completely snoozing on the VR end. GeForce Now is an attempt by Nvidia to bring high performance gaming to the Mac. But why stop there? Why not offer virtual office environments to companies and the self employed sometime further down the line? The growing adoption of high speed Internet access across the U.S. Europe, and Asia makes cloud based VR a very definite possibility some day in the not so distant future.

I for one am looking forward to the day where I can take a plane to Tokyo or NYC and not have to worry about how I will be able to put together a decent post or check all my charts by looking at a tiny laptop display. I’ll simply be able to put up my HMD, hook myself into the matrix, and be equally as productive as I am at home. One would hope at least although I can already hear my wife yelling to put that damn thing down and get my butt to the beach.

The Future Of Trading

Clearly the implications here for us are profound. Being a trader has always represented the lure of location independence and being able to live a life on your own terms. It doesn’t matter how old you are, what color or gender, all that matters is the space between your ears and your ability to squeeze a consistent edge from the markets of your choice.

Having pursued exactly that path myself when moving to Spain I can assure you that the benefits have far outweighed the cost and occasional inconvenience. Sure I have to deal with the shifted trading hours but in my case that’s actually a benefit as I am able to put together a post and hunt for promising setups hours ahead most of you guys in the U.S. roll out of bed. The one dependency of course that continues to affect me is Internet access and that obviously will always be a factor. But almost none of the places on this planet I consider spending more than a week or two in lack the ability to find relatively high speed Internet access. So for me personally it’s a non issue. If I want to get away from it all then I obviously will seek out remote places which are not yet hooked into the matrix.

The Last Hurdle

The one remaining limitation however that has plagued me has been ergonomics. And more specifically screen estate as I’m very capable of typing without looking at a keyboard. Back in 2008 when I launched Evil Speculator I used to be surrounded by two 32” Apple displays and two additional smaller ones. These days here in Valencia I make due with one single Apple display but that’s fine as I use RDP and multiple desktops quite effectively. The next level up and the ultimate ticket to trading freedom will of course be virtual reality. I very much hope that high resolution VR headsets will be available late this year or the next so that I finally can claim that coveted complete location independence. Maybe I’ll spend a year on the road crossing the entire United States or perhaps I’ll decide to spend the year living in three or four places, following the best (i.e. warmest) weather I can find – Europe sucks in the winter, even in Spain. Now if there was just a way to get rid of those annoying time zones… alright, let me work on that.

Once Again Only The Paranoid Survive

Having paid tribute to it right here on several occasions over the past years [1][2][3][4] I was once again reminded of late Andy Grove’s favorite motto earlier this morning when I saw the flash crash in the silver futures. Apparently rumor has it that someone (Mexico.. cough.. cough) dumped around $200 Million notional of Silver in just a few minutes. Which presented us all with a great entry opportunity – twice – if you happen to be a high frequency AI directly hooked into the IEX pipe reading this. Incidentally if you are then let me be first to announce that Evil Speculator welcomes our glorious new robotic overloads. 


Anyway, the take away lesson from all this was that we I was pretty explicit about not chasing silver higher earlier in the week and, quite to the contrary, were looking for an opportunity to play inverse swings which were clearly on the horizon. Of course the exact pace of events was out of my hands and as of right now we are relegated to waiting for yet another retest of the 100-hour SMA. If it comes after volatility dies down a little then I will be sure to highlight it here.


Some good news: Crude continues to play ball and it is now time to advance our stop higher. Where exactly is up to you (and depends on your campaign management) but I would definitely keep it below 53.3 if you plan to ride this pony higher. Caveat: there will be bumps on the way and crude can be a bit of a rough ride, but clearly once she gets going she doesn’t look bad and thus it is indeed worth riding out the initial hassle.


Copper has reverted back and painted a spike low to which I will now advance my stop. If that one breaches it would most likely stop me out, thus given the dynamics I may as well lock in a bit of profit. FWIW this one really needs to get out of the gate or she’ll die in the cradle. Upside for any laggards: this is a prime entry opportunity.


Now VEA came across my radar this morning as it’s touching its upper 25-day BB and in general has pushed back into a reversal range below 37. The Financhill seasonal stats suggest that it’s heading into a weak month, thus…


I propose a short setup but only after a dip below that daily Net-Line Buy Level at 37.46. If that happens or we see a RTV-S then I’ll be short with a stop > 37.7.


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Well, it’s Friday afternoon on my end and I have important business (ahem) to attend to. Congrats on surviving the first trading week of 2017. And if you’re Spanish or Latino: ¡Un feliz día de los reyes!


Solid Kick Off

Given that it was only the second session of the year plus a dreaded FOMC day I’d say we are kicking off the season as well as anyone could ask for. But let’s remain cautions for now as it’s easy to get caught up in the early excitement, which often leads to a major smack down towards mid-January.2017-01-05_silver_entry

Yesterday’s theme was a binary silver entry and it today appears that we may be getting the short sell scenario. However I’m not seeing a convincing RTV-S formation just yet and have decided to use the overnight spike low as our entry threshold. Stop would be placed above 16.8 – if it pushes above it then precious metals may attempt to make a run for it.


Yesterday’s long campaign in copper is looking pretty damn good right now and I’ve decided to advance my stop to the break/even mark. If she’s going to run then most likely it’ll happen before the week is over.


Now if you aren’t long crude right now then you only have yourself to blame because for some mysterious reason you weren’t a subscriber yet (or snoozed which is worse). May I humbly suggest that you remedy the situation post haste before reading on?

Anyway, if you took it then good for you and you may now do what I just did, which is to pad yourself on the shoulder for pulling the trigger in the perfect spot and then move your stop to the break/even mark.


It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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By the way, only 31 more days until Super Bowl LI! Unfortunately it’s almost impossible for me to catch the game live over here in Europe. Does anyone happen to know how to watch it online?

Running With Silver Futures

I have no idea why people insist on wearing footwear that’s should be easily visible to the naked eye all the way up at the International Space Station. “Oh look – there goes Bill again – he’s up early for his morning run today!” Whenever you think that attention whoring has reached its maximum peak the intrepid engineers at Nike go to work and prove you wrong yet once again. Well done! And I thought three stripes on my Adidas pants were a bit flashy…


So obviously the topic of the day are the silver futures, just not the ones you wear to blind pilots and cause airplane crashes near international airports. I’m seeing a dual entry opportunity which may not be immediately apparent. It’s tempting to go long here as silver seems to be packing for a trip towards 17 and higher.

Long near 16.2

However being the crusty old cynic that I am it would take a retest to 16.2 to get me excited about a long opportunity. For one because precious metals have a nasty habit to run a hare ahead of big directional moves, just to stick it to you guys and cause general mayhem.

Short near 16.8ish

Now if it manages to push higher and paint a Retest Variation Short (RTV) then I’d tempted to take out a small short position in expectation of yet another slap down as seen numerous times over the past few weeks.


We’re sticking with the futures theme today – next runner up is copper. Which is a long here or > 2.47 if you can grab it this low. Stop should be set below 2.45 – add a few more ticks if you manage to get in lower.

But I had to keep my most favorite symbol today for my subs – please meet me in the lair:


It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

FOMC Announcement


Apparently intents on starting the year with a bang. Watch your six around 2:00pm Eastern.

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