Is the Bond Bull Market Over?

We have been hearing the Bond Bull Market ois over for years. David Rosenberg gives us a roundup of someof the prior forecasts of the end of the 30+ year bond bull market. ~~~   BOND BULL MARKET OVER … HAVEN’T WE HEARD THAT BEFORE? In addition to the Trump rally, all I hear is how…

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TIPS Liquidity and the Outlook for Inflation

TIPS Liquidity and the Outlook for Inflation Martin M. Andreasen and Jens H.E. Christensen 2016-25 | November 21, 2016     The prices of special securities known as TIPS can give some insight into how investors view the outlook for future inflation. New research uses a novel term structure model of nominal and real yields…

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Refinance America’s Debt Before Its Too Late

There are times when a confluence of events creates a rare opportunity. The U.S. now is at one of those the moments. To wit: As of January, a single party will control the executive and legislative branches of government; Campaign promises were made by the president-elect to upgrade infrastructure; The U.S. federal debt is almost…

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Interest Rates and William Safire

The money market fund rules change came and went (Rule 2a7 effective on October 14). We now have government funds yielding short-maturity T-bill rates and prime funds yielding more from their holdings of commercial paper and CDs. The government fund doesn’t break the buck. The prime fund may break the buck. “You pays yer money…

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Fischer on Low Interest Rates

Low Interest Rates Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar, FRBNY, October 5, 2016       I would like to thank the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for establishing this seminar 40 years ago and for maintaining it since then. This event has always been a useful forum for sharing knowledge…

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Ray Dalio’s Long-Term Debt Cycle Charts

The following speech was delivered by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar on Wednesday, October 5, 2016. ~~~ It is both an honor and a very special opportunity for me to be able to address such a large and esteemed group of central bankers…

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Puerto Rico Insured: Third Quarter 2016 Review 

Puerto Rico Insured: Third Quarter 2016 Review Shaun Burgess, Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst September 24, 2016     Puerto Rico started off the third quarter with a bang: a historic default and a seminal moment in the drama that has played out over the past two years plus on the little island in the…

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Who owns government bonds?

From Torsten Sløk of Deutsche Bank: With global rates moving higher clients are asking me about the ownership of different countries’ government bonds, these two charts is the best there is: Source: Deutsche Bank Securities   Source: Torsten Sløk, Ph.D., Deutsche Bank Securities

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