TIPS Liquidity and the Outlook for Inflation

TIPS Liquidity and the Outlook for Inflation Martin M. Andreasen and Jens H.E. Christensen 2016-25 | November 21, 2016     The prices of special securities known as TIPS can give some insight into how investors view the outlook for future inflation. New research uses a novel term structure model of nominal and real yields…

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Is higher inflation just around the corner?

Me, at MoneyWatch:

Why interest rates will likely rise faster than inflation: Is higher inflation just around the corner? That seems to be how the bond market sees it: As soon as traders heard Donald Trump had won the presidency, bond yields spiked (chart below). That’s because it’s widely assumed that inflation and interest rates will be higher under Trump than they would have been under Democrat Hillary Clinton.

There are two reasons to expect higher interest rates and rising inflationary pressure with Trump rather than Clinton as president...

The Current Message of Yield Curves: Inflation or Deflation?

With the state of post-Op/Twist systemic dysfunction, there are no absolutes, but… Generally, a rising yield curve (after years of Goldilocks and her favored declining curve) would signal changes in financial markets.  But it is not as simple as stating ‘the curve is rising… it’s bearish!’ or ‘the curve is rising… it’s bullish!’.  It is […]

It’s January 2013, With a Twist

The title was not meant as a play on words in reference to Operation Twist, but now that I think about it, maybe it should be.  The Post-Twist financial world is far different than it was before the genius that is Ben Bernanke’s ‘bigger than yours or mine’ brain concocted a maniacal plan that would […]

Why Better Wages Are Tied to Healthcare Costs

Real, or inflation-adjusted, compensation has risen 61 percent since 1970; wages, on the other hand, have increased less than 3 percent in real terms in that period. This is a tale that has gotten short shrift in this political season. Much of the narrative of the 2016 election is about middle-class anger over the lack…

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Whither Inflation Targeting?

Whither Inflation Targeting? By John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Presentation to the Hayek Group September 6, 2016       Good evening; it’s a pleasure to be here to discuss the economy and monetary policy with the Hayek Group. I’ll start with a quick overview of the U.S.…

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Inflation (if you look in the right places)

Inflation isn’t dead; it just might not be where you think it is. To find significant price increases, you need only look in the right places. There are many goods and services with rising prices, as well as those without. Together, they tell a fascinating tale about the modern global economy. Understanding the forces driving…

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Greenspan Era Blueprint on Inflation

For further thoughts on inflation and the content of this article The post title is best when drawled in Gomer’s thick southern accent. (e.g. “Surprise, surprise, surprise!”) I realize Gomer Pyle was way before the time of much of my reading audience, but for the last few weeks I’ve been hearing him in my head […]
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