Looking For Retracement Here

Yesterday was a an unexpected trend day. Usually trend days arrive on Stan’s cycle trend days but not always and yesterday was one of those exceptions. The double bottom targets that I gave on Monday morning for ES, NQ & TF have now all been made, and obviously this move is developing faster than I […]

Long Week – TGIF

I have a fairly hectic work schedule nowadays and I’ve been struggling to get everything done. an obvious way to save time would be to give up writing this blog, but I’m not going to do that, as I really enjoy writing it. I’m working on rebalancing my schedule so I can reliably always get […]

De Nada

The bears didn’t have a good day yesterday, with a larger than expected decline on the indices, and clear breaks at the RTH on SPX close back below the daily middle band, the 50 hour MA and the 5dma, and ES losing the key weekly pivot area at 2152.25 that I highlighted as a key […]

Noli Illegitemi Carborundum

I’m having a theme of latin post titles so far this week, though I’m sure that some of you will know that unlike the last two, the sentence I’m using as the title today is joke latin rather than the real variety, and I’m using it as a description of what we have been seeing […]

Time For My Silver Bullet

Given yesterday’s snooze-fest I was tempted to simply skip today’s session. But then I stumbled across silver which quickly changed my mind. There are good entries, exciting entries, and then there are the ones a card carrying evil speculator simply has to partake in. So without further ado…

2016-07-26_silver

That is one beautiful formation with the hourly circling around the 100-hour SMA, which is just about to swing higher. Meanwile the daily has us triple testing the 25-day SMA with a spike low already in place.

2016-07-26_silver_LT

The long term perspective is equally tantalizing. On the weekly panel we are now back above the upper 100-week Bollinger and the monthly is attempting to hop over the upper 25-month BB. How could I ever resist?

2016-07-26_volatility_silver

Now good looking campaigns are a bit like dates – they are seductive and the odds may be slightly in our favor, but they are no guarantor of success. So don’t get nuts and keep your exposure limited. The volatility profile suggests that it may test our patience a little here and whipsaw around for a few more days. Especially since Yellen is scheduled to deliver the Fed monetary policy statement tomorrow around 2:00pm Eastern. So definitely be prepared for that mess, which is another reason to place our ISL a respectable distance away.

risk_calc

Also, if you have a small account then you may want to play SLV instead as the SI futures contract is pretty big. If in doubt use our handy futures risk calculator – at maximum you should not be exceeding 1% on one single campaign. Remember that in general the bigger your stop the less contracts you are able to trade. On silver every single tick runs you $25 and let’s say you use a 55 tick stop then you’ll need at least $140k in assets to afford one single contract. Because if stopped out you will be down at least $1,375 (excluding commission and assuming a decent b/a spread). The SLV is a lot smaller and more appropriate for smaller accounts.

Grinding Higher

SPX pushed through the big resistance levels I was looking at yesterday at the open and has made a new high at 2153.62 so far today. If the bears have a shot today, and that’s a real maybe, then the best scenario has the very well formed rising wedge on ES shown on the first […]

FOMC Chop?

I’m pressed for time this morning so this is a good day to post the bonus charts that I did for theartofchart.net subscribers this morning. This gives you guys a now rare look at the non-equity index work that I do there nowadays, and if anyone would like to see these every morning, then all […]

A Storm of Sell Signals

I mentioned yesterday morning that there were a lot of strong sell signals fixed on various equity instruments and timeframes, and quite a few more fixed yesterday. At the close yesterday the roll call of fixed sell signals on SPX, NDX and RUT were as follows: SPX – daily RSI 5_NYMO, 60min RSI 5, 15min […]
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