To Find the Cause of the Crisis, Answer These Questions!

Sometimes, when you lose a debate, you have to just let it go. That seems to be a problem for those who are unwilling to accept the complex realities of what actually caused the financial crisis. I have been saying for a long time that many elements contributed to the global financial meltdown. From ultralow…

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Howard Marks: The Problems with Expert Opinions

Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Group, is one of the smartest guys I know. Each quarter, he sends out a letter to investors filled with sharp insights and observations. I find all of his letters to be worthwhile, but this quarter he played right to my confirmation bias in his discussion about experts. Here…

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The Seven Year Glitch

@TBPInvictus here Though my political leanings should be apparent to anyone who’s read some of the pieces I’ve written over the years, it’s rare for me to write solely on politics sans some inclusion of markets/economics. That’s partially because I’m not much interested in writing solely on politics, and partially because BR pretty much forbids it. That said:…

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The Golden Age of Backtests

Today’s must read is written my colleague Ben Carlson, Director of Institutional Asset Management at RWM. Ben explains the 10 things you cannot learn from a backtest. A quick list of those 10 items: 10 Things You Can’t Learn From a Backtest 1. How many bad backtests came before the good ones? 2. Data availability at the time. 3.…

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Zombie Reagan Jobs Lie Eats Moore’s Brain

@TBPInvictus here: I thought I’d put the “Reagan-created-one-million-jobs-in-one-month” lie to bed a long time ago. I’d like to think I was the first to expose it for the lie that it is. (See here, here, and, most notably, here.) Sadly, not so much. Stephen Moore, who apparently may be up for a high profile gig…

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Sears’ Death Spiral

click for ginormous graphic Today’s must read is a monster piece from Business Insider (again) headlined Inside Sears’ death spiral. Recall how many people a decade ago said “Eddie Lampert is a Retail genius.” They were half right; he doesn’t know jack about retail, but as BI shows, he knows how to be on both sides…

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Forecasting’s Problem is Philosophy, Not Track Record

This time of year is peak forecasting season — holiday retail sales, lists of stocks you should buy this year and, of course, market forecasts all keep economists, strategists and analysts busy. I always make time to mock some of the sillier approaches to prediction-making. Indeed, I have been doing this for so long that…

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Megyn Kelly To NBC

Back in September of last year, in a Washington Post column, we discussed possible challenges to the Fox News juggernaut. Front and center was a talent exodus. We are seeing the beginning of that with Megyn Kelly jumping to NBC. ~~~ You just can’t treat someone that badly. Forget Roger Ailes’s harassment, station star Bill O’Reilly said she…

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Don’t Make these Retirement Mistakes

Pretty amazing stuff via IBD: While just 21% of millennials and Gen Xers are heavily invested in stocks, 54% of millennials and 57% of Gen Xers have invested roughly half their retirement accounts in slow-growth bonds and other assets. Many are mainly or entirely in bonds and stable-value assets like cash.   Big Retirement Savings Mistake…

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Is the Bond Bull Market Over?

We have been hearing the Bond Bull Market ois over for years. David Rosenberg gives us a roundup of someof the prior forecasts of the end of the 30+ year bond bull market. ~~~   BOND BULL MARKET OVER … HAVEN’T WE HEARD THAT BEFORE? In addition to the Trump rally, all I hear is how…

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