2017 Top stock picks? Use My Time Machine

No, don’t buy those ‘best stocks to own in 2017’ Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, December 11 2016       Each year around this time, the headlines blare about what you should do with your cash. Click around any of the usual financial media sites, and you will find all manner of experts detailing the “must…

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Fake News for Traders & Investors

The news media have been abuzz for a few weeks about the proliferation and effect of fake news. Facebook Inc. is changing how it handles news from dubious sources  while Twitter Inc. is rethinking how to respond to bots promoting fabricated articles. Alphabet Inc. (Google) has rejiggered its algorithms to fight phony stories. All of…

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Fun with Forecasting!

One of the things I failed to learn after writing a book was the simple fact that methodically demonstrating a thing with data and evidence doesn’t resolve that issue. I shouldn’t have been so naive, given that some people still are flat-earthers, or are anti-vaxxers, or Holocaust deniers, or claim that global warming is a Chinese…

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My Annual Predictions for the Coming Year, 2017 Edition

Once again, it is time for my annual forecasts. The predictions for 2017 are 100% guaranteed to not be wrong:   Category Forecast Dow Jones Industrials Not the slightest idea S&P500 You talkin’ to me ? 10 Year Bond Could not fathom a guess Inflation There will be ‘flation GDP More G, Less D Unemployment Yes, we…

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Will Donald Trump make index funds illegal?

The vacationing Matt Levine brings the awesome; I highlight (bold & underlined) under the rubric of “Economic theory” clear nonsense:   You know how, last month, I mentioned that Donald Trump’s presidential campaign was a blank canvas for the projection of everyone’s wishes, from white nationalists to Fannie Mae privatizers? And you know how, a…

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Putting the Minimum Wage Debate into Context

We interrupt this holiday season to revisit the minimum-wage experiment going on in various cities and states, paying special attention to those opposed to plans by some locales to eventually adopt a $15 hourly wage. The forecasts of these critics — that jobs would be lost and businesses would close — have, so far, been…

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Mansions Don’t Produce Much Alpha

I almost let an article about how great luxury real estate has performed sneak by without comment until I saw a dubious comparison to the stock market. Here’s what caught my eye: Adjusted for inflation, that’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.7%. The S&P 500 stock-market index averaged an inflation-adjusted annualized return of just…

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