Setup Bonanza

Friday is usually my least favorite day to take on new setups, for obvious reasons, but beggars can’t be choosers and I’m glad that things are finally starting to come into sync across the board. Plenty of juicy setups today and I’m confident even Hoss won’t go hungry tonight!

2016-12-02_spoos_setup

After yesterday’s sell off the probabilities at this point favor the short side. As you may recall what we are looking for now is a tepid push toward 2190ish followed by a bit of weakness (and perhaps a divergent signal on the Zero indicator). Should that scenario transpire then I’ll be taking on a short position with a stop above 2200. Nice round number.

2016-12-02_6e

If you missed out on not just one but two EUR entries in the past week then this is probably your last opportunity to hop on board. However bear in mind that Italy votes on a crucial referendum this weekend and if they decide to exit this one may just fall into a hole in the floor. Since you’re probably American and probably have no idea what the heck I’m talking about let me get you up to speed. BTW, I freely admit that I lifted this off of ZeroEdge:

On December 4, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s current pro-EU government is holding a referendum on changing Italy’s constitution. A YES vote is a vote of approval for Renzi’s government. A NO vote is a chance for the average Italian to give the finger to EU bureaucrats in Brussels. Given the intense anger Italians feel right now, it’s very likely they’ll do just that.

So understanding the stakes involved I STRONGLY recommend that you only take out teeny weeny position sizes ahead of the weekend. And if you’re a retail rat with limited funds then you may want to play options instead. Instead of the E-Mini futures buy some SPY puts or a spread (but you would mostly miss out on an explosion of vega) – on the EUR above you could buy 6E or FXE calls (or sell them if you’re convinced Italy decided to go back to the future).

Alright, more setup goodies lurking below the fold. You know I’ll keep bugging you so you may as well sign up for Gold or even better the Zero right now:

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Actually I’m not sure how much longer I’ll be able to post my traditional German Hefeweizen on Fridays as at least one German city is now permitting a ‘Sharia Police’ to roam its city center. I kid you not. Actually I spent some time in Wuppertal as a kid and it’s always been a dump to be honest. Their claim to fame always used to be what they call their ‘Schwebebahn’ – a suspension railway, which is pretty cool but a little disconcerting when it rattles along right above your head. I like my tramways where they belong – on the street where you can get run over by them the old fashioned way instead of having them fall on your head out of the grey*.

Prost! Have yourselves a great weekend and I’ll see you Monday morning ready to face the Euro-pandemonium.

*Blue skies are rare in Northern Germany

S&P 500 Smart Money Boosts Bullish Positioning

Bullish positioning has gotten even stronger among "smart money" commercial traders in S&P 500 futures and options, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data.

Friday's COT report puts the commercial net position as a portion of total open interest at 2.58 standard deviations above the average of recent data, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data shows.

My signal for the S&P 500 goes bullish on next week's open of trading based on the recent data. The signals aren't always right, but the recent move could mean the correction in equities has a good chance of being over.

See my latest signals table for more details on the latest positioning in the 10 markets I trade based on the free weekly COT reports.

Note that I've never found a significant correlation between week-to-week changes in COT positioning and S&P 500 prices. But the extent of the bullish net positioning could mean a longer-lasting up-move is coming, rather than a shorter-term rebound in a bearish downturn.

Other signals taking effect on next week's open: cash for the BKX U.S. Bank Index and bullish for silver. Also, my signal for the 30-year Treasury bond turns bullish in a week's time on the open the week of Feb. 17.

Good luck this week, and Happy Valentine's Day

Sharp Bullish Move in S&P 500 Commercial Posture

Silver turns bearish on the coming week's open of trading, while the 30-year Treasury bond goes to cash.

This, according to my trading signals based on the free weekly Commitments of Traders data issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Recent COT data has also moved my currently bearish signal for the S&P 500 to bullish, with the signal taking effect in a week's time on the open of trading on Feb. 10 (i.e. the signal remains bearish one more week due to the trade delay I use for that setup.)

That's due to highly bullish positioning by the "smart money" commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures and options. In fact, the commercials are more relatively bullish than any time since last summer in their net positioning as a percentage of the total open interest.

See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the COT reports. Good luck this week.

Natural Gas Bearish, Bond to Cash

Two signals take effect on the coming week's open of trading based on my trading system using the latest Commitments of Traders data:

- bearish for my natural gas signal
- cash for my 30-year Treasury bond signal

All other signals remain the same as last week.

See my latest signals table for the details and to see how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I'm trading using the free weekly COT reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Good luck this week.

Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Not a short term setup but something I wanted to throw on your daily watch list for today and possibly tomorrow: Gold is budding against its 25-day SMA and a NLBL – at the same time it is testing its just a few ticks away from a falling 25-week SMA. So this could be good – the idea here is a long on a breach higher with a stop below the 100-day SMA (which is just a few ticks below the 25-day). Until that happens you can entertain short positions with little risk (i.e. a stop at our long entry trigger).

Silver also not looking so shabby as it’s kissing its 25-day SMA and a NLBL at 23.25 – I’m short here with a stop above the NLBL which however is also my long trigger.


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

The post Thursday Morning Briefing appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Pig Wrestling

My general outlook on the situation at hand over equities can be boiled down to an expression I’m sure you’ve heard before: I learned long ago never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty and besides – the pig likes it.

Here’s a screengrab of the current Zero indicator in action. Actually – if you step back and squint you can see a bunch of pigs knee deep in the trough and loving it. As you can see, courtesy of the Zero Lite participation signal, sentiment quickly turned from ‘woohoo free money for everyone’ to ‘oh crap – better get out while the butcher is in the shop sharpening the knife’.

Apart from the equities sideshow however the real action is happening over on the currency side. I have a whole collection of juicy setups waiting below but let’s first look at the Dollar which has once again been stomped lower. The weekly has us a few ticks above the 25-week SMA but it’s the monthly you should be watching carefully. That diagonal support line is very well developed at this point and current support not only lines up well with the 100-week SMA but also the 25-month SMA. Let’s just cut through the nonsense and mark 81 as our new do-or-die level.

Gold may have some of you guys confused but it’s now painting an RTV-L on the daily chart. Nice context given that weekly NLSL which thus far has been holding up. Given what transpired this weekend that’s rather positive for the goldbugs, but let’s see if this setup materializes. Had you been a subscriber this morning you’d been long since the lows – better luck next time.

UPDATE – as we’re dropping it’s possible that we breach the Friday lows and the long setup goes bust today. Just a reminder that a close below the Friday low (and the weekly NLSL) is a short signal. I covered that in this morning’s update but wanted to make sure everyone is on point.

More on precious metals plus some kick-butt Forex setups waiting below – please step into my lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Now – did I promise too much? ;-)

Cheers,

The post Pig Wrestling appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Post Labor Day Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

It’s been pretty quiet over the long weekend and I don’t see much additional context except for the fact that the E-Mini is still trading above its 100-day SMA. There’s a bit of compression on the 25-hour Bollinger and perhaps we’ll see more volatility later in the session.

The Dollar continues to observe its 25-hour SMA and unless we see a solid breach here (not just a quick scare-the-children stab lower) I expect it to push higher.

The inverse happening on the EUR/USD obviously although it’s starting to flatten out a little. Watch our for attempts to breach the 25-hour which make for good inflection points – if there are ST candle patterns (via CrazyIvan.EURUSD.30) then use them.

Here’s the volatility profile courtesy of the CrazyIvan.EURUSD.480 – as you can see it’s currently in Bear/Quiet mode and that usually makes for shitty trading. Which is the reason the 480 is currently filtering long and short trades. Now that’s something we do for automated trading systems as it keeps us out of sideways or low probability tape over the long term. But the downside of any type of volatility filters/measures is that they are inherently lagging. The benefit of trading discretionary is that you can often anticipate and catch the first big moves as volatility starts kicking in.

Silver is looking interesting on the ST panel as the 25-hour just breached the 100-hour SMA. I am going to try a very speculative long position here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. If it continues higher I’ll slowly build it up.

Public Service Announcement:

In case you missed it – make sure to check out our brand spanking new (and kick-ass) futures risk calculator. A nifty little utility you will quickly get addicted to (one more step toward market domination).

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

The post Post Labor Day Morning Briefing appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The spoos managed to recover a little overnight but I still don’t see any major mojo in either direction yet. I can appreciate that fence hopping is not everyone’s style and I respect Scott’s style of holding the existing short entry. If you recall on my end I managed to hedge myself via the NQ and that’s still working in my favor, thus I haven’t lost out due to fence hopping during the recent whipsaw. That is the one advantage of discretionary trading and it’s something that’s very difficult to train to an automated trading system.

Be this as it may nothing really has changed on the equities side. This puppy may still swing either way and I patiently await resolution. This is not a question of opinion – simply one of putting yourself on the right side of the trade during a honeypot period. I don’t know which way it’ll resolve but what I do know is that the losing side will pay a big price. FWIW – trading styles may be debatable but the current inflection points appear clearly to be observed – so however you play this thing keep an eye on the daily and weekly NLSLs and the 100-day SMA.

Gold has been taking a little breather and is now facing the Pincer maneuver by the 25-hour and 100-hour SMAs. I expect it to bounce around here for the next hour or two and then pick a direction. Mind that NLSL at 1406.3 which is good until well into the NYSE open. But there’s one contract that just came into sync – please step into my lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Addendum 9:44am EDT: I just realized that we painted a shooting star yesterday and there are implications:

The series of lower spike highs and spike lows means that we are in a bonafide downtrend on the daily panel. And that means that a breach of a shooting star low represents a short entry. Which now gives us two strikes to be short – the NLSL at 1631.5 and the low of the SS at 1624.75. If we close below those two today then it’s sliders time.

However, until that happens we remain stuck above an important inflection point and the bulls have an opportunity to pull this thing out of the mud (stranger things have happened in the past few years).

Have fun but keep it frosty – this tape is designed to soften you up and draw you into bad trades.

Cheers,

The post Thursday Morning Briefing appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Since I took this snapshot the spoos have been pushing higher and I’m pretty certain an attempt will be made to claw its way back above that hourly NLBL at 1632.25 which also lines up with the 25-hour SMA. And those two roughly line up with the daily NLSL at 1631.5 which was yesterday’s short trigger. A push back above it would put me back into long positions with a stop below. After all I’m not married to either direction here and all I care about is winding up on the winning side eventually as big moves are on the horizon.

The golden line for the bears is that weekly SMA at ~ ES 1622 – a drop below that most likely leads us lower. Until then the bulls still have decent odds to pull the cart out of the mud today.

As a matter of fact I’m seeing a potential long entry right here and now:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

The post Wednesday Morning Briefing appeared first on The Evil Speculator.

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